Friends again: Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (in glasses) is
welcomed by Eritrea's President Isaias Afeworki in Asmara on July 8,
2018 at the start of a meeting to repair relations between the
neighbours. FILE | NATION MEDIA GROUP
On September 26, I set off from Kampala to visit Asmara, the
capital of Eritrea, arguably the most controversial country in Africa
today. There is a tendency by commentators on Eritrea to write and talk
about it in negative terms.
The more I read, the more I
sought an opportunity to find out what they thought about all the stuff
I “knew” about their country and, specifically their president.
The Eritreans I met challenged me: “Go and see for yourself.”
And I did. For six days.
Eritrea
is often presented as the “North Korea” of Africa. I have never been to
North Korea. However, courtesy of media, I have heard many things about
it. Apparently visitors are followed around or are monitored by
government minders. It is therefore difficult to talk to ordinary people
and find out what they think.
Difficult life
I was able to go to where I wanted in Asmara, freely. People
were happy to talk about their circumstances, with some being quite
outspoken about how difficult life is. On the basis of this alone, and
assuming reporting about North Korea is accurate, the “Eritrea is North
Korea” label is misleading.
The difficulty of life in Eritrea stems from many things.
The
border war with Ethiopia and the sheer investment in financial
resources that went into it had a massive effect on the economy. So the
imperative to remain alert with a fully mobilised army and population,
in the event that the war started again. Mass mobilisation in the
context of the “no war, no peace” situation with Ethiopia, which ended
only a few weeks ago, has not come cheap. Nor did it allow for the
country’s human resources to be channelled entirely into productive
endeavours. They have had to be ready for war at any moment.
And
then there were the sanctions Western powers imposed on the country.
These were ostensibly because of Eritrea’s destabilisation of the region
through, among other activities, its alleged support for insurgencies
in several countries.
The sanctions
There
is a view inside the country that these reasons were merely a cover for
the desire by Western powers to topple the Isaias Afeworki government
because of its perceived threat to their interests. The sanctions have
made it impossible for normal economic activity.
One
of the sources of notoriety for the government has been the
much-publicised flight by thousands of its young people to the West. The
media have been active in publicising the nasty things that happen to
them along the way. But why do young people flee?
I
have read about “brutal repression” as the reason many Eritreans will
not stay at home. The real reasons, however, are: Economic hardship and
the requirement to do national service for an indefinite period of time.
Economic hardship means there are very few prospects for young and
ambitious people to advance in their lives.
Indefinite
national service, which by the way is not only in the army contrary to
the popular portrayal, means there is no knowing when one may one day
dedicate their time and energy to doing those things that benefit them
directly, allowing them to live the kind of lives they always dreamt
about.
These two factors, not brutal repression per se,
are the key drivers of the mass migration of Eritrea’s young people. I
did not encounter a single official who does not recognise out-migration
as damaging.
Existential threat
They
and some ordinary Eritreans insist, however, that indefinite national
service, which fuels it, has been a necessity since the border war with
Ethiopia broke out, for which there was no alternative if it was to
stand a chance of safeguarding its independence and sovereignty against
its bigger and better-endowed neighbour, were war to break out again.
Should this be simply believed? Perhaps not, but making it known is important.
Does
any of this mean there are no rights abuses in Eritrea? No; it does
not. One respondent put it all in perspective, without sugar coating it:
“In a state of war and heightened mobilisation, you do not use only
incentives to rally people; sometimes compulsion is necessary. That is
why some people rebel and leave. People who rebel will be incarcerated.
Parents that want to help their children to escape will also suffer. It
causes disaffection, even in families. The issues raised outside are
about human rights abuses,” he said
“But the real
reason for exile is the economy. Eritrea has been hurt by isolation and
lack of resources, with government spending a lot on the military. That
has caused suffering and disaffection. But the government has no
choice.” he added.
The temptation
It
doesn’t sound pretty, but it does deepen one’s understanding of the
context and possibly lessen the temptation to think that it is all for
the self-gratification of the country’s leadership.
What
of the issue of democracy? Eritrea has a constitution that is based on
far-reaching countrywide consultations. It was supposed to be
implemented from 1997. Then Eritrea went to war with Ethiopia and
everything to do with democratisation was put aside.
And
so things remained that way for as long as renewed war with Ethiopia
remained a possibility. According to one of my interlocutors, political
competition can be divisive.
As a result, the
leadership has not wanted to put the country on a war footing through
potentially divisive and disruptive political processes. Some dismiss
this as an excuse.
Perhaps it is. Given what we know
about political competition elsewhere in Africa, however, it is hardly
farfetched. But the question is: Does the leadership see an end in sight
to this situation? They do.
New leadership
The
situation of “no war, no peace”” with Ethiopia, the greatest
existential threat the country and the ruling Peoples Forum for
Democracy and Justice have faced, is now over. That has opened up all
sorts of possibilities.
First, it means that as soon as
it is clear that Prime Abiy Mohammed in Ethiopia consolidates his grip
on power, enough to guarantee the success of the peace process, Eritrea
will no longer have any reason to channel vast financial resources into
the military.
Nor will it have reason to continue with
forced conscription. Nor even will it have reason not to revive the
process of implementing the Constitution and moving the country towards
the much-awaited transition to a new leadership.
Peace
with Ethiopia will begin to deprive Western powers of whatever excuse
they have had to maintain sanctions. That would open up the country to
investment and attract exiles to return to rebuild their country.
There
is no guarantee that these things will happen soon or at all. However,
there is no denying that the ground has shifted in favour of Eritrea
becoming the normal country it was during the first few hopeful years of
Independence.
Frederick Golooba-Mutebi is a Kampala- and Kigali-based researcher and writer on politics and public affairs. E-mail: fgmutebi@yahoo.com
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