![Vladimir Putin](https://www.nation.co.ke/image/view/-/4347614/highRes/1912713/-/maxw/600/-/wyrlko/-/4.jpg)
President Vladimir Putin visits his campaign headquarters in Moscow on
March 18, 2018. He has no successor and political competition. PHOTO |
SPUTNIK | ALEXEY DRUZHININ | AFP
MOSCOW,
In
power for almost two decades, Vladimir Putin predictably won a fourth
Kremlin term in Russia's presidential election on Sunday, extending his
long rule for another six years.
With no successor and no political competition, what are the possible scenarios when his term ends in 2024?
- Leaving power
Without
constitutional reform, Putin will not be able to run for a fifth time —
Russian law forbids serving more than two consecutive terms.
Putin, who will turn 72 in 2024, could decide to leave the Kremlin after 24 years in power, making way for a successor.
Russian politics is currently dominated by
infighting between rival clans of technocrats and the "siloviki" —
representatives of the security services and the army.
"There
is already a fight for influence," said independent analyst Nikolai
Petrov. "Nobody will wait passively, each group will try to promote its
interests," he added.
In a recent interview to American TV channel NBC, Putin said he has been thinking of a potential successor since 2000.
"There is no harm in thinking about it but at the end of the day it will be the Russian people who decide."
But
in making sure no one can compete with him, no political personality is
currently popular enough to succeed Putin. Many analysts say Putin
leaving power in six years is unlikely.
- Switching roles
One way Putin could continue ruling Russia after 2024 is to stay in power in a different role.
The
Russian strongman could revisit his move from 2008, which saw him put
forward Dmitry Medvedev as president while he himself became prime
minister before returning to the Kremlin in 2012.
"Putin
may prepare the regime for a transfer of power. But not from Putin to
another president but from Putin to Putin in some other role," said
Petrov.
But memories of mass protests
in Moscow when Putin switched back with Medvedev and returned to the
Kremlin may put the Russian leader off this option.
Putin's
age also makes this scenario problematic. In 2030, the next time Putin
is constitutionally allowed to run for another term, he will be 78.
- President for life
Putin
could choose to follow China's Xi Jinping in abolishing presidential
term limits, thus allowing him to remain president for life.
"I
don't think he will refuse power in 2024 even if he has had enough, he
is (already) visibly tired," said political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin.
"He
can't leave because he does not believe that anyone will protect him,"
he added, saying that Putin has built a system in which everything
depends on who is at the top.
So far, Putin has ruled out ruling Russia for life.
"I
never changed the constitution, especially for it to benefit me and I
do not have this kind of intention today," he told NBC in March.
Oreshkin
said Putin does not want to be remembered for changing the constitution
and that if he were to remain president for life, it would be done
"more elegantly" than in China.
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