By KENNEDY SENELWA
In Summary
- Bank of Uganda said in its report for the year ended June 30 that a final instalment of $36 million was expected in the current financial year, ending June 30, 2017.
- A compromise of $250 million was reached after the government slapped a hotly contested charge of $407 million, following the farming down of exploration interests in three blocks to Total of France and China Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) in 2012. The deal was for $2.9 billion.
Uganda has received $214 million from Tullow Oil to date in
settlement of disputed capital gains tax dues arising from the company’s
sale of interests in oil blocks in the country.
Bank of Uganda said in its report for the year ended June 30
that a final instalment of $36 million was expected in the current
financial year, ending June 30, 2017.
A compromise of $250 million was reached after the government
slapped a hotly contested charge of $407 million, following the farming
down of exploration interests in three blocks to Total of France and
China Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) in 2012. The deal was for $2.9
billion.
The matter went as far as the World Bank dispute resolution
tribunal — International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes —
before being settled out of court in 2013.
“On July 1, $36 million was received as part payment of $250
million CGT liabilities from Tullow in addition to $36 million received
in June 2015 and $142 million in 2012,” BoU governor Prof Emmanuel
Tumusiime-Mutebile noted in the report.
Crude oil prices have declined since mid 2014. Prof Tumusiime
said Uganda, being a petroleum importer, benefits from low crude oil
prices through the reduction in the oil imports bill and improvements in
the balance of payments.
“The persistently low oil prices could also depress oil-related
foreign direct investment inflows in Uganda, which have already
dwindled,” he said.
This is bound to adversely affect Uganda’s already weak current
account position and possibly cause volatility in the foreign exchange
market. According to the report, the balance of payments as at June 30
improved to a surplus of $80.2 million on account of a decline in
private sector import bill, reflecting low global crude oil prices and
subdued domestic demand.
The slowdown
Total private sector imports declined by 17.7 per cent. Export
growth remained subdued due to weak global demand, low commodity prices
and conflicts in South Sudan, one of Uganda’s major trading partners.
The stock of foreign reserves was $2.948 billion, equivalent to 4.3 months of import cover.
An analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence, however, shows that
Uganda is struggling to keep pace with Kenya and Tanzania in terms of
growth because of conflict in South Sudan and lags in infrastructure
development. It sees the next growth momentum coming when oil output
starts in 2020.
Growth in real domestic product picked from a negligible decline
of 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year to 1.4 per cent at
the end of June and its volatile nature, said Bloomberg Intelligence.
“The slowdown in Uganda’s economic growth partly reflects a
reduction in aid and investment, which has reduced the government’s
budget for financing operations. Direct budget support was cut in 2012
following a corruption scandal. This has led the government to increase
revenue from taxation, an area where Uganda has lagged peers, and by
expanding domestic borrowing. The country is now more self-sufficient,”
said Mark Bohlund, Bloomberg Intelligence Africa and Middle East
Economist.
Uganda companies have been shifting attention Democratic
Republic of Congo and Rwanda after South Sudan, their main market for
export of fresh produce and transit goods from ports along the Indian
Ocean, was disrupted by war in 2013.
The Bank of Uganda has been trying to stimulate growth by
pushing down the key interest rate from 17 per cent to 13 per cent in
six months. This has had some measured success with private sector
credit expanding in the past three months. BoU, however, has revised the
growth rate for this year to flat 4.8 per cent against 5.5 per cent in
August.
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