How transport crisis, Juba chaos and store brand wars will define the year

Passengers queue to board a bus in Mombasa. A strike by PSV operators is likely. Photo/Kevin Odit 

By Wallace Kantai

In Summary

• PSV operators are expected to go on strike while EAC must rethink South Sudan membership.

So, 2014 is upon us. Or 2013 is behind us (depending on one’s outlook on life).

I’m not one to make New Year’s resolutions (seeing as most fail within the first two weeks), but it is worth, for just a moment, to take note of several not-so-obvious issues and trends in the coming year that will either be important in and of themselves, or be a harbinger of business and economic life to come. And, as with anything published in the first few weeks of the New Year, I absolve myself of any liability if any, or all of them, prove to be useless.

South Sudan conflict and the East African Community

As of this writing, East African heads of State were scrambling to forestall the rapidly unfolding military and humanitarian crisis brought about by the conflict in South Sudan. But, away from the blood-soaked headlines, there is an important issue that the conflict brought to the fore, and none too soon.

Does the East African Community have unbreakable criteria before it accepts membership? A few weeks before Juba exploded, the Summit of the Heads of State of the EAC had proffered a path to membership to South Sudan and Somalia.

One State is brand new, with little track record of administrative or economic management (the economy almost collapsed when a dispute with Sudan put paid to oil revenues for a few months).

The other hasn’t existed in recognisable shape for more than 20 years. Yes, African Union (in the shape of Ugandan and Kenyan) troops had pacified the country, but Somalia is a country that exists less as an actual entity than an example of (for now) wishful thinking.

There are still bombs aplenty, disrupting government meetings, attempting to scuttle rebuilding, and trying to assassinate top leadership. There is still the unresolved issue of whether Somaliland shall be recognised as an independent entity or not.

Thus the argument can be made that the membership offer to Somalia and South Sudan was not just precipitate, but that the whole concept of EAC membership needs to be rethought to include good behaviour.

EAC secretary- general Richard Sezibera said as much after the outbreak of the Juba crisis: “The current internal crisis in South Sudan does not augur well with its bid for membership in the Community.”

A Sunday Nation story a few weeks ago, Dr Sezibera spoke of membership criteria that includes “universally accepted principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice.”

So the question in the coming year is whether these criteria will still apply when the EAC considers the membership of the two countries, or of Ethiopia down the road. Also, and more intriguingly, do these criteria apply to current members?

Nakumatt Blue Label products

This is one that needs to be watched very closely, because it is not just about a supermarket offering own-label products, but also how much a brand can be stretched.

Nakumatt, the supermarket chain, has instituted a practice common to chains in the West such as Tesco, Sainsbury and Wal-Mart. If well done, it can change the entire relationship between shop, shopper and supplier.