By 2040, around a quarter of the Chinese population is predicted to be over the age of 65. PHOTO | COURTESY
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Summary
By 2040, around a quarter of the Chinese
population is predicted to be over the age of 65
Throughout much of recorded human history, China has boasted the largest population in the world – and until recently, by some margin.
So
news that the Chinese population is now in decline, and will sometime later
this year be surpassed by that of India, is big news even if long predicted.
As
a scholar of Chinese demographics, I know that the figures released by Chinese
government on Jan. 17, 2023, showing that for the first time in six decades,
deaths in the previous year outnumbered births is no mere blip. While that
previous year of shrinkage, 1961 – during the Great Leap Forward economic
failure, in which an estimated 30 million people died of starvation – represented
a deviation from the trend, 2022 is a pivot. It is the onset of what is likely
to be a long-term decline. By the end of the century, the Chinese population is
expected to shrink by 45%, according to the United Nations. And that is under
the assumption that China maintains its current fertility rate of around 1.3
children per couple, which it may not.
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