UK's over-85 population set to double by 2045 - govt projections

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Social care pressure mounts as over-85 population set to double

Jenna Brown

The social care system will come under ever-increasing pressure as the number of people in the UK aged over 85 is set to double in the next 25 years, according to official projections, raising questions about the system’s ability to cope.

The government statistics, released on Wednesday (12 January), project the number of people living past 85 will increase from 1.7 million in 2020 to 3.1 million by 2045. This cohort of the population will then make up about 4.3% of the total.

Just Group said the numbers "lay bare" the challenge faced by the social care system. The government last year announced major reforms to social care funding with a 1.25% increase to National Insurance scheduled from 2022/23 and a cap on care costs set at £86,000. The cap, however, does not include accommodation costs and has faced questions on how well it would work in practice.

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Group communications director at the provider, Stephen Lowe, said: "The proposed reforms to the social care system must allow for a significant increase in the number of people needing residential and domiciliary care in later life over the coming decades.

"While controversies over the ‘cap' on care costs and the role of property in paying for care have been the main focus of the proposals, it is also vital that the reforms meet the increasing pressure on the care system that will come from the nation's changing demographics."

He added: "Not only will over-85s account for a larger proportion of the nation placing more pressure on the social care sector but it will also result in a smaller proportion of taxpayers paying the social care levy through National Insurance contributions. The government must make clear to the public how the reforms will meet their social care needs now and in the decades to come, and especially regarding what the state will provide and what people must pay for themselves."

Helen Morrissey, senior pensions and retirement analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said recent state pension age increases were not enough to tackle the government's fresh predictions of the aging population: "Pensioner power is on the rise, over a fifth of boys and well over a quarter of girls born in 2045 are projected to live to at least 100. This is great for those of us who get to live longer lives, but given that we're also having fewer children, it means fewer people shouldering the burden of a much larger state pension bill. It leaves the government with a tricky balancing act.

"We've seen state pension age increase rapidly in recent years to accommodate this, but the situation is not so simple anymore. There is growing discussion as to whether future increases should be brought in quite so quickly as longevity does not seem to be increasing at the same rate it once was."

Canada Life technical director Andrew Tully added: "The ONS data signals a significant shift in the make-up of the UK population over the next century. The change in the proportion of working-age to pension age population is stark, while the amount of births is set to fall over the same period.

"The data leaves some profound questions for future policymakers. While the basis of our tax and social care system might work with today's demographics, this won't be the case in the future based on these projections. The future of the state pension in its current form will be called into question."