Interest rates will remain low until the end of H1 2021 – Meristem Securities

Meristem Securities has argued that interest rates will remain low until, at least, the end of H1 2021.

By Adeyemi Adebayo

Meristem Securities has asserted that interest rates will remain low until, at least, the end of H1 2021.

This statement was made at the recently held webinar on Global Economy and Outlook, which the

company themed: Bracing for a Different Future.

Although the company acknowledged that there is mounting pressure for upward movement in yields from several stakeholders, it appears the company concurs nothing concrete is in sight.

This line of reasoning seems to have influenced their decision to advise investors to move away from Treasury instruments.

What they are saying

Meristem advises that

• “Buy and hold strategy investors seeking to generate above average returns should move away from risk free Treasury instruments and focus on investment grade commercial papers and bonds which satisfy investment objectives.”
• “Active traders with higher risk appetite are advised to focus on high-yield short duration instruments, which would be re-invested into a higher yield environment should rate reversals occur.”

The advice regarding shunning Treasury instruments appears to be in order, considering that treasury bill rate has been declining, with the latest figure — November 2020 — 0.03% as per the CBN monthly interest rate data.

Further checks from the Debt Management Office website, indicates that the latest figures for Eurobonds and Diaspora bond fall short of the fixed yield at issue for all the different categories of bonds in issue.

What you should know

Latest figures from the CBN’s monthly interest rate indicate that:

• Treasury bill rate has been on a steady decline for six months, down to 0.03% since the last rise (2.47%) in May 2020.
• Fixed deposit rates (one, three, six and twelve months) have also been declining – the latest figures for these indicate that in November 2020, one-month deposit rate was 1.92%, 2.9% for three months, 2.84% for six months, and 4.89% for 12 months.
• Compared with the corresponding period in 2019, the figures indicate that these rates fell by 75%, 66%, 71% and 49% respectively.