Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir speaks during a rally with his
supporters in the Green Square in the capital Khartoum on January 9,
2019. The president has accused the media of exaggerating Sudan
protests. PHOTO | ASHRAF SHAZLY | AFP
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has flexed his muscles,
getting the military to declare that it will not allow his
administration to collapse.
On January 30, Sudan’s
Defence Minister Awad Ibn Auf and the Sudan Armed Forces Chief of
General Staff Kamal Abdel-Marouf, held a meeting with army rank and file
and announced that they would not allow the country to collapse or slip
into the hands of people with unproven records and credibility.
“Those
who are in the demonstrations are the same faces that have remained
hostile to Sudan, distorting the country’s image among international
organisations and supporting rebel movements that have been fighting the
armed forces over the past years. We will not hand over the country to
traitors and will not hesitate to confront them at any cost in order to
preserve the security of the country and the safety of citizens,” said
Gen Abdel-Marouf in a statement to the Sudan News Agency.
Gen
Auf said that the military was aware of ‘‘the schemes to exploit the
current economic conditions to incite the security forces to illegally
take power,’’ adding that the disciplined forces will not be dragged
into action that could ‘‘stain their status and history.’’
This
comes in the wake of the fifth week of street demonstrations, with
observers wondering whether they could grow into an uprising or fizzle
out in the face of a mounting crackdown by security agencies and biting
economic conditions.
The protests, led by the Sudanese
Professionals Association, have attracted the support of opposition
parties and the civil society.
The inner circle of President al-Bashir’s ruling National
Congress Party is concerned that the protest organisers are trying to
recreate the Arab Spring that swept away the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt
and Libya.
What started as protests in Khartoum over
the high prices of fuel and bread following the removal of government
subsidies, has now attracted opposition parties who are calling for
sustained efforts to force the collapse the regime.
A
group of 22 opposition and civil society groups had earlier in the year
called for al-Bashir to step down or they would support a revolution.
Sudan
is one of the few African countries that saw post-Independence popular
uprisings that ousted military regimes in 1964 and 1985.
The
question now is whether President al-Bashir is ready to use the army to
crush the protests or is merely testing the waters. Some analysts say
that al-Bashir — who came to power in 1989 via a coup — unlike his
predecessors, has been restructuring the army throughout the past 30
years and filling the top ranks with regime loyalists.
Second,
he has been playing out his foreign policy cleverly where he remains
friends with Egypt, Iran, Turkey and Qatar— who provide military and
financial aid.
Three options
But Dr Luka Kuol Abiong, a South Sudanese academic and an expert on Sudan, told The EastAfrican
in an interview that the difference between the 1964 and 1985 scenarios
and today is that the current protests seem resilient in terms of time,
intensity and have attracted the youth and women.
“Unlike
previous uprisings, the current protests are led by the new forces of
youth and middle-class professionals who are informed, connected and
equipped with enabling social media technology that makes them difficult
for the government to contain easily,” he said.
Dr
Abiong, a professor at the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies at the US
National Defence University, said that the 30 years that President
al-Bashir has politicised and Islamised the army had subjected citizens
to even more suffering rather than uplifting their living standards.
For
instance, the Islamic groups and scholars, he said, have come out
strongly against the government’s mismanagement of the economy, and
gradually the protests if they continue are likely to erode the cohesion
within the security institutions because it is getting into their
households through their children and spouses.
Dr
Abiong says that President al-Bashir has three options; initiate reforms
and genuinely negotiate with the opposition on the best way forward for
the country.
Secondly if things gets worse, he could
hand over power one of the neutral military who could be acceptable to
the protesters and who could also ensure his safety.
Thirdly,
he could continue to resist with the hope of wearing out the
protesters, declare a state of emergency and violently suppress the
uprising. But he says this could be counterproductive because the
scenario could descend into a protracted and fragmented conflict similar
to that of Syria and Libya.
“Given the reliance and
the difference shape the protest are taking including using plays and
poems to pass messages against the government, it appears that uprising
seems to gain more traction the more the government uses violence to
suppress it,” said Dr Abiong.
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