Every time I visit Africa, I am struck by two things that go hand in hand: the youth and the energy.
The median age on the continent is 18. Compare that to the median age in North America, which is 35.
These
young Africans are inheriting a continent where fewer and fewer people
have to struggle to survive and can instead devote their energy to
planning for and investing in the future. The percentage of Africans
living in poverty has dropped from 59 per cent of the population in 1990
to 38 per cent today.
Africa’s improvement in living
conditions is one of the most important trends in recent history, and
yet the data shows that it is also one of the most fragile.
Each
year, our foundation releases a report tracking progress in the fight
against global poverty and disease. According to current trends, the
number of people around the world living in extreme poverty could stop
declining and could even start growing again.
Most
countries in the region are continuing to make steady progress against
poverty. Ethiopia, for example, is on track to eliminate poverty within a
couple of decades. As a result, poverty is concentrating in a
relatively small handful of countries beset by severe climate change,
violent conflict, and weak governance.
By the
mid-century mark 40 per cent of the extremely poor people in the world
will live in just two countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo and
Nigeria. Together, those two nations will be home to almost 600 million
people, and they are poor and fast-growing enough to offset the gains by
their neighbours.
Some people both inside and outside
the continent worry about what this large group of very young, very poor
people will do when they are denied opportunities. Will they cause
insecurity, instability, and mass migration?
But I think just as much about what they will accomplish if they
have access to opportunities — if they grow up healthy, get an
education, build businesses, dream up new inventions, and grow the
global economy, the way that bright young men and women from around the
world have always done.
The key to providing
opportunities in the places where they are currently lacking is
investing in what economists call, “human capital,” or the health and
education of young people. These investments are not the only ingredient
of a healthy economy, but they have played a pivotal role in lifting
nations like China and India out of poverty. Economic models show that
they can do the same for Africa, growing the continent’s GDP by nearly
90 per cent by 2050.
But first, African governments and businesses will have to invest more in their young people.
There are two areas, in particular, where they should focus this investment to maximise long-term growth prospects:
First,
health: Most African countries have participated in the global
revolution in child survival. Rwanda, just a few years removed from
genocide, has built and effective health system from the ground up and
seen the steepest drop in child mortality ever recorded. The next step
is making sure children don’t merely survive but thrive. One third of
African children are stunted, which means their brains and bodies aren’t
developing fully. But there are proven strategies solving the stunting
problem, and many have to do with food security.
For
example, China was able to reduce stunting by nearly 70 per cent between
1990 and 2010, in part because the country’s farmers adopted new
agricultural technologies. African countries, most of which are still
predominantly rural, must invest in agricultural transformation to fight
malnutrition and poverty.
Second, education. Since
2000, the number of African children enrolled primary school has
increased from 60 million to 150 million, and the number of girls in
school is now virtually equal to the number of boys. The next step is
improving the quality of the education all students receive.
The
data is spotty, but it suggests that more than half of students on the
continent aren’t achieving minimum proficiency in math and reading.
Low-income countries can achieve excellent results in their schools.
Vietnam, for example, has a 97 per cent literacy rate; in 2015, they
were the poorest country to participate in international student
testing, but still ranked 8th.
Governments must learn
how to transfer this success so that all students benefit. For most of
human history, poverty was thought to be an inevitable part of the human
condition, something that had always – and would always – exist. Over
the last two decades, however, Africa has proven otherwise and shown the
world that poverty is not an inevitable.
Whether more
young Africans live in poverty – or more live to fulfill their potential
– depends on the choices and investments we make today. I am hopeful we
will make the right ones.
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