Why it's no fun to be a reluctant autocrat

A vendor sits at a bus stand with a picture of President Joseph Kabila in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo on December 31, 2016. FILE PHOTO | REUTERS 

In Summary

• While Nkurunziza and Kabila may well be playing their old cynical political games, the very fact they feel the need to manage their stay in power, suggests that perhaps the armour of the authoritarian leaders in the region is beginning to crack.

By CHARLES ONYANGO-OBBO
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Burundi's President Pierre Nkurunziza surprised many when he recently pledged to stand down in 2020.

In 2015, a Nkurunziza power-grab plunged his country into a bloody conflict that killed hundreds and sent over 250,000 Burundians fleeing to neighbouring countries as refugees.

Human-rights groups have reported torture and detention of opponents, and independent media is suppressed.

In May, he won a controversial referendum that opened the door for him to potentially remain in power until 2034.

And in March, drawing inspiration from places like North Korea, Burundi’s ruling party named Nkurunziza “Eternal Supreme Guide.”

These were not the actions of a man about to step down from power, leading to speculation that the announcement was a public-relations ploy to unblock suspended aid.

That Nkurunziza’s real plan was to improve the situation sufficiently for him to stand in 2020 with less risk of being deposed in a coup.

However, it was reported from next-door Democratic Republic of Congo that President Joseph Kabila, another regional leader who has overstayed his welcome, was also making some noises about an exit plan.

Kabila, who has been in power since 2001, is reportedly seeking constitutional immunity for possible crimes committed while in office.

Kabila’s term ended in December 2016, and he has been able to hang on by doing nothing. With no credible initiatives to hold elections and end the country’s crisis, there was no option but to extend his rule to December 2017.

Kabila then kicked the elections down the road to December 2018 – for now.

While Nkurunziza and Kabila may well be playing their old cynical political games, the very fact they feel the need to manage their stay in power, suggests that perhaps the armour of the authoritarian leaders in the region is beginning to crack.

We are still years away from a general outbreak of democracy, so strong men will be around for a while. What is becoming difficult is an autocrat with a broken economy.

Additionally, a lousy economy means leaders like Nkurunziza are running out of patronage to buy support, imperilling themselves further.

Tanzania’s John Magufuli is the most recent arrival in the wider East African iron-fisted rulers’ club. But he has cleaned up some of the corruption, delivered impressively on some public goods, and the Tanzanian economy is not doing too badly.

One of the most difficult things for Nkurunziza and Kabila, is that they are neighbours of Rwanda, which seems to be marching fast into the 21st century, as they fall back into the Stone Age.

At a certain point, even at their most brutal, they cannot stop their downtrodden people from also demanding what they see across the border.

To make matters worse for leaders in the region, they will probably soon run out of excuses for why Kenyans can change their leaders in reasonably competitive elections, go to court and overturn a disputed presidential vote, have a relatively free media, and unfettered Internet access, while their citizens can’t.

And that was all before Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in Ethiopia, shook up politics in the region, and caused a level of excitement not seen around in over 30 years.

If you can’t become a democrat in East Africa, it seems the only way you can survive is to play at being a reluctant autocrat.