Population set at 54.2 million…Mpango warns against fabricating statistics

By ALVAR MWAKYUSA

TANZANIA’s population is projected to grow to 54.2 million people by this year, half of whom are minors below the age of 18, with a chilling revelation that the dependency rate from people aged between 15 and 64 from dependents aged below 15 and above 65 years is at 92 per cent.

The latest estimates indicate an increase from 46 million people which was recorded during the Population and Housing Census conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in 2012.
Finance and Planning Minister, Dr Philip Mpango, unveiled the projections covering 2013 and 2035 in Dar es Salaam yesterday, with figures showing that there is an increase of 1.6 million people in the country each year.
Dr Mpango explained that the census data with other information from administrative sources and surveys are of paramount importance in evaluating and monitoring international development programmes, like the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Africa Agenda of 2063.The projection shows that there will be 52.6 million people on Mainland Tanzania and 1.6 million on the Isles. Predictions are that the population will hit 59.4 and 77.5 million people, by the year 2021 and 2035, respectively.
The estimates indicate that life expectancy at birth for both Tanzania Mainland and Zanzibar will increase from 62 years in 2013 to 74 years in 2035 for both sexes. Dr Mpango warned individuals and organisations against fabricating statistics since it is against the law, stressing that the numbers released by the statistics body were the official statistics in Tanzania.
“Population growth is on the increase in Tanzania, making it the sixth African country with high rate of birth rate; over two million births are recorded per annum against 400,000 deaths. The dossier indicates further that the total fertility rate (TFR) will decline from 5.3 children per woman in 2013 to 4.1 children per woman in 2035 for both Tanzania and Zanzibar.
“For Zanzibar, the TFR will decrease from 4.9 children per woman in 2013 to 3.2 children per woman in 2035,” the report reads in part. Dr Mpango attributed the decline in fertility rate from 7 children in 1978 to the estimated 4.1 in 2035 to high rates of infant mortality rates, poverty and families tending to have fewer children. The predictions indicate further that for Zanzibar, life expectancy at birth will increase from 66 years in 2013 to 73 years in 2035 for both sexes.
“For the male population, life expectancy at birth will increase from 64 years in year 2013 to 70 years in 2035, while life expectancy at birth for the female population will increase from 67 years in 2013 to 77 years in 2035. For the period covering 2013 and 2035, according to the report, it is assumed that the population growth of the country will decrease.
The national projections show that Tanzania’s population growth rate decrease is from 3.1 per cent in 2013 (with a population of 46.4 million people) to 2.8 per cent in 2035 (with a population of 89.2 million people).
“Infant Mortality Rates (IMRs) in Tanzania and Zanzibar are expected to decline for both sexes from 43 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2013 to 13 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2035,” according to the projections. The Director General of NBS, Dr Albina Chuwa, said the next population and housing census will be conducted in 2022 where the population is expected to reach 61.2 million people, representing an increase of 16.3 million recorded during the last census in 2012.