Ethiopia’s ruling coalition is expected to meet this week to
choose a new prime minister, most likely from the populous Oromo ethnic
group to try and dampen the discontent behind recent anti-
government demonstrations.
government demonstrations.
The change in leadership follows the
surprise resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn last month.
He is the first ruler in modern Ethiopian history to step down; previous
leaders have died in office or been overthrown. He said he wanted to
clear the way for reforms.
The international community
is closely watching the developments in Africa’s second most-populous
nation which has a booming economy and is a staunch Western ally in the
fight against Islamist militancy.
The coalition is made up of four region-based parties but is dominated by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front.
Criticism
The
Tigrayans are a much smaller ethnic group than the Oromo who are from
Ethiopia’s most populous Oromiya region and have long complained of
being sidelined from political power.
Their criticism of a government development plan for the capital
Addis Ababa in 2015 sparked wider anti-government protests that spilled
over into attacks on foreign-owned businesses in 2016. This plunged the
country into an crisis and there are still sporadic protests.
“Our
people should take a leadership role because this is a moral question.
Our people want this. We want this,” Lemma Megersa, the Oromiya region’s
president, said in a speech last month.
Prediction
Global
strategy companies including Teneo Intelligence and Eurasia Group have
been predicting an Oromo prime minister as the most likely candidate
because it would help tamp down protests.
The
government has declared two states of emergencies as it tries to calm
the political unrest. Since the first one ended in August, it has
introduced a series of conciliatory steps, including the release of more
than 6,000 prisoners this year.
The government
declared a second state of emergency the day after Hailemariam’s
resignation in February and protests started up again. On Friday,
parliament voted to ratify the state of emergency, although 88
legislators rejected it. The previous state of emergency passed
unanimously.
One frontrunner for the leadership of the
ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is
Abiye Ahmed, according to the Eurasia Group. He was chosen last week to
lead the Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation - one of the coalition
parties.
The multilingual official holds a doctorate in
peace and security from Addis Ababa University and served in the
military. He set up a government intelligence agency that increased
online surveillance before serving as cabinet minister for science and
technology, government media outlets have reported.
Diplomats will be watching closely.
“The
government needs to continue to release detainees and open the
political system by allowing more room for civil society and a freer
press,” said David Shinn, a former US ambassador to Ethiopia.
More reforms needed
Opposition
leaders say they want more than prisoner releases. They want the
government to reform the strict laws that sent them to jail in the first
place.
Those include laws passed in 2008 and 2009,
including an anti-terror law with a vague definition of offences and
another that limited foreign funding for pro-democracy groups. Human
Rights Watch has said the legislation was being used to criminalize free
expression and peaceful dissent.
“There are laws that
the government uses to stifle peaceful activity,” said Bekele Gerba, a
former Addis Ababa University lecturer and opposition party leader who
was among the thousands of prisoners freed this year.
Bekele,
who suffered a stroke during his incarceration, told Reuters that he
spent two years confined in a small windowless cell with no bed.
“Usually
in this country, the tradition is that opposition parties are regarded
as against the government. Whatever the opposition parties do, they are
regarded as unlawful,” he said.
There are no opposition lawmakers in Ethiopia’s 547-seat parliament.
Ethnic tensions
Since
toppling military leader Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991, the ruling
EPRDF coalition has been dominated by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation
Front. Tigrayans account for about six per cent of the population.
Oromos make up 36 per cent.
Overseas-based activists
have complained for years that Tigrayans secured business contracts
without competition and dominated the security sector, said Daniel
Berhane, an Addis Ababa-based political analyst.
Tigrayan government officials reject the claims.
This resentment contributed to the anger behind the protests, Daniel said.
“There
are legitimate public discontents that fuelled the protests. But these
protests were ... at times accompanied by ethnic attacks, which ranges
from physical attacks to arson to eviction,” said Daniel.
The
government needs to quell the discontent to avoid further protests that
could fan ethnic tensions, said Abdul Mohammed, a political analyst and
former government advisor.
“Today, our political
discussions are conducted almost entirely in the language of ethnic
identity: which group benefits, and which doesn’t,” he wrote in a
commentary sent to Reuters.
Former ambassador Shinn said making sure everyone benefits from Ethiopia’s boom would go a long way toward defusing protests.
“The
current government deserves high marks for its economic progress,” he
said. “But the time has come to ensure this progress improves all parts
of society.”
No comments :
Post a Comment