Folklore has it that bullies are insecure people; that the
stronger a person is physically and psychologically, the less likely
they are to bully others.
However, in the context of political power, it would seem that the more powerful a regime is, the more paranoid it becomes.
In
the Soviet Union of the 1930s, for instance, the more powerful the
state became, the more paranoid and brutal it became. Even its most
loyal sycophants lived in fear that an inadvertent gesture or
pronouncement could be construed as a threat to the state.
In
Kenya of the 60s, 70s and 80s, the more powerful the Kanu regime
became, the more brutal it treated those it perceived as nonconformist.
In
order to put themselves beyond suspicion, Kenyans cheered the regime
ever more loudly, pledged allegiance ever more obsequiously, avoided
contact with banned books or suspect individuals ever more assiduously.
At
one point, imagining the death of the president was declared high
treason. At this time, the title “president” was a protected state
honorific, to be used solely by the president of the country.
Even
at the zenith of its power in the 80s, when the Judiciary and
Parliament were mere extensions of the Executive, the state still saw
the need to change the voting system from “secret ballot” to “mlolongo”
(public queuing) and to abolish the security of tenure for judges.
Kanu's manifestation
And
now, it is beginning to look as if recent actions and pronouncements by
the Jubilee government in Kenya are a manifestation of the same paradox
of power.
Why would a government, whose election on
October 26, 2017 was upheld by the Supreme Court, and which has complete
control of all the instruments of power, and which is recognised
regionally and internationally as being legitimately in power, feel
threatened by what, for all intents and purposes, is “political theatre”
by an opposition, which, while still enjoying the support of millions,
was losing the moral high ground in the eyes of the progressive national
community, and regional and international diplomatic powers?
The
Supreme Court ruling that annulled the re-election of Uhuru Kenyatta
last August gave the opposition an unprecedented second chance to wrest
power from Jubilee.
Many observers, therefore, felt strongly that Nasa should have participated in the repeat poll of the 26 October.
Armed
with knowledge of the areas where it had lost footing since the 2013
election, Nasa stood a good chance of turning the tables on Jubilee in
the second round.
Nasa's theory
But
instead of going into full campaign mode, pouring every ounce of
resource into those areas where Jubilee had made inroads, the opposition
instead went into full complain mode.
It advanced an
improbable conspiracy theory. According to this theory, the government,
the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, ballot paper
printing firm, Safaricom, foreign companies providing IT support, and
pretty much everyone else who disagreed with Nasa had ganged up to rig
the election in favour of Jubilee.
Meanwhile, as Nasa
made demands that were impossible to fulfill within the timeline set by
the Supreme Court for the repeat poll, Jubilee was campaigning like
their lives depended on it.
So when Nasa pulled out of the race and began calling for a another poll, it got no regional or international support.
Nasa,
which before the August election, enjoyed a moral high ground compared
with Jubilee which was widely regarded as corrupt and lukewarm towards
the creation of a constitutional democracy, began to slip in the moral
ranking.
The opposition began to lose support of the national, regional and international progressive opinion it had always enjoyed.
Thus
the creation of the National Resistance Movement, the boycott of
Safaricom and other companies, and the mock swearing-in of Raila Odinga
were seen by many observers as nothing more than political theatre.
By this time, Jubilee looked like the more reasonable of the two sides. Nasa had lost the propaganda war.
'Paranoia'
But
last week, in a state of paranoia, the Jubilee government arrested key
actors in the Raila mock swearing-in, disobeyed court orders to release
them, shut down major media houses, and again flouted court orders
directing that they be reopened.
Government critics
like economist David Ndii have had their passports cancelled. In every
way, these brutal tactics are reminiscent of the paranoid Kanu regime.
In just a few crazy days, the Jubilee government has lost the moral advantage it had gained at the expense of the opposition.
Now,
the Jubilee government’s earlier reputation as a dictatorial and
corrupt wolf in sheep’s clothing of constitutionalism is being confirmed
by its Kanuesque tactics.
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