A political rally: Hundreds of media representatives and 5,000
international observers are expected to monitor and cover next week's
poll. FILE PHOTO | JEFFF ANGOTE
Summary
- Western political analysts are warning that violence, election fraud will make Kenya an international pariah with costs to the economy.
- Britain in particular is anxious to resume good relations with Nairobi as it prepares to enter a post-Brexit world.
- Some British commentators warn that “deep-seated hatred over unresolved injustices” could lead to election-related violence.
Next week’s General Elections are likely
to be a watershed for the country’s relations with the international
community, according to analysts in the UK press.
Get
it right with and the election passes off peacefully and Kenya will once
again be welcomed with open arms into the international community, with
Britain in particular being anxious to resume good relations with
Nairobi as it prepares to enter a post-Brexit world.
But
get it wrong, with violence and election fraud, and Kenya could once
again become an international pariah shunned on the world stage with an
inevitable economic cost to boot.
Some commentators in the UK are predicting violence like that witnessed ten years ago, with The Independent
newspaper warning that “the government's failure to address old wounds
risks passing them along for generations with the potential for cycles
of violence.”
'Unresolved injustices'
The
paper warns that there remains “deep-seated hatred over unresolved
injustices.” It also points out that though some changes have been made,
the country has not made much-needed reforms to its security forces
tasked with upholding peace across the country.
“Experts
say that if Kenya's injustices are not addressed, it is a matter of
when, not if, violence will occur again…Ensuring justice for past
violations and addressing their root causes is imperative in
establishing a society that abides by the rule of law.”
The Independent
also quotes Prof Ronald Slye of Seattle University, a former member of
Kenya's Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission, as saying: "In the
short run, it may make sense to ignore such tensions in order to
achieve short-term political gains...In the long run it risks, at best, a
situation of stasis in terms of development and, at worst, a repeat of
some of the worst violence the country has seen.”
Hundreds of media representatives and 5,000 international observers are expected to be monitoring and covering next week's poll.
Former commissioner of the Truth Justice and Reconciliation Commission,
Prof Ronald Slye, listens as a journalists gives their testimonies on
February 23, 2012. FILE PHOTO | JAYNE NGARI | NMG
Former commissioner of the Truth Justice and Reconciliation Commission,
Prof Ronald Slye, listens as a journalists gives their testimonies on
February 23, 2012. FILE PHOTO | JAYNE NGARI | NMG
Msando murder
The Guardian
quotes Rashid Abdi, a regional analyst at the International Crisis
Group, as saying that the murder of IEBC election official Chris Msando
was an extremely concerning development.
He said the
killing of “someone who was involved in a critical component of the
elections, the electronic infrastructure” would “definitely raise
suspicions and undermine public confidence in the ...
outcome” of the poll.
outcome” of the poll.
Human Rights Watch also said Mr Msando’s death should be urgently investigated.
The
United States and the United Kingdom said they were "gravely concerned"
by the murder, calling for "free, fair, credible and peaceful
elections" in Kenya.
The two countries also offered
assistance in the investigation. Mr Msando's family urged the Kenyan
government to accept the offer in order to "conclude the matter with
urgency".
However, The Guardian also says that
most analysts opine that “the prospect of disorder on the scale of 2007
is remote, though some local clashes are to be expected during the
campaign and after the results are declared.”
Tight race
The Financial Times
(FT) says that polls “suggest the presidential race is extremely tight
and both men are using multiple tactics to gain whatever advantage they
can as voting day nears.”
It says that one of the
critical issues remains Judicial independence which it says “is a
sensitive subject in Kenya because Mr Kenyatta was declared the winner
of the 2013 presidential election only after a supreme court appeal by
Mr Odinga, who was also his main challenger then, failed.”
Many losers are expected to appeal against their defeats to the courts.
However one western diplomat told the FT: “The judiciary is the best prepared of the different institutions participating in the election.”
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