I have mixed feelings about opinion
polls. Yes, they provide signals. But they aren’t oracles. They are only
helpful in teasing out issues. In Kenya, for example, medium to
long-term polling speaks to everyday concerns around gharama ya maisha
(cost of living), unemployment and underemployment (good jobs),
insecurity, corruption (who’s eating our children) and social
fractionalisation — ethnic and religious divide.
Yet
the notion of honest response that prevails on the issues front quickly
dissipates like our current light rain showers when we move to
personalities. Fortunately, poll season closed on August 1.
In
our wary pre-to-post election economic climate, most disappointing has
been a lack of the rational, national debate our development state badly
needs. Instead, we go to the polls fed on a tasty mixed salad of
opprobrium and blarney. It doesn’t help that we’re walking into an
election with no budget allocation for the presidential assumption of
office, or, God forbid, a presidential run-off.
At
some stage, we had the manifestos and missed their debate potential.
Like, on security, why Jubilee would remain in Somalia, but Nasa
wouldn’t. Equally, why Nasa seeks a county security presence that
Jubilee will not contemplate.
On graft, why
instrumentalism, as argued by one side, is superior to the other side’s
moral constructs. Broadly, which side sounds more convincing on Kofi
Annan’s quote that good government is a necessary (though insufficient)
precondition for good governance?
Socioeconomic
differences? We could have better interrogated the real variations in
candidates’ education and health proposals. Or demanded more detail on
fiscal outcomes. We could have compared the 60-odd economic proposals of
the main protagonists. Or the 150 proposals on each side.
Less obviously, this electoral moment reflects a
growing post-tribal calculus among young people around day-to-day
issues, which could better define the sort of transformative leadership
needed for Kenya’s transformation in five ways.
First,
through a pro-growth agenda that is inclusive — meaning real jobs, not
gimmicks. Agriculture, anyone? SMEs, MSMEs? Intrapreneurship as the
future for job creation, rather than cuts? More balanced
mega-investment between human (software) and physical (hardware)
capital?
Second, paid for and encouraged by a
responsible fiscal management regime. Simply, a better balance between
revenue extraction from the few and prudent spending by the many In a
way that avoids our fast growing debt mountain, and one day, fiscal
cliff.
More prosaically, in a way that reverses our
‘wink, wink’ approach to food — cartels and subsidies across maize,
sugar, milk, seeds, fertiliser et al.
Third, justifying government’s first role — policy innovation — in dealing with “wicked problems”.
‘Wicked’
in the sense of complex, not evil. Like the poverty-inequality-jobless
growth nexus that tells us about the imbalance between the contributions
of our human capital, physical capital and, least impressively, actual
productivity. Corruption is not our wicked problem, we just made it so.
Fourth,
government’s second role — seamless citizen service — based on
joined-up working, not disjointed silos. Think about government as a
‘least cost’ institution promoting real private sector — everyone
outside of the state and religion — as development driver, not
procurement agent.
Finally, as our constitutional
demands, the role of public participation, on the one hand, and public
accountability on the other. These are the ‘curve balls’ we bought with
the Constitution. Public participation — not political rallies —
explains why this could be our most exciting electoral moment. At its
simplest, public accountability is the implementation tool — the
enforcement of rewards or sanctions.
Word counts might
have helped us through this campaign period. One manifesto mentions
Vision 2030 once, the other doesn’t at all. One mentions the
Constitution 20 times more often than the other. An equal imbalance
applies to words like debt, poverty, human rights and governance.
Yet both mention the economy, devolution and development with almost equal frequency. We could go on and on.
Fortunately, it ends on Tuesday, while the cacophony of political campaigns ends tomorrow.
Fortunately, it ends on Tuesday, while the cacophony of political campaigns ends tomorrow.
A
brief moment exists to think as the private sector would with top job
interviews. There, the key question isn’t What have you done before? but
What do you bring to the table? As any corporate nabob, the world over
will tell you, the consequences for Kenya will depend on the choices we
make next week.
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