US President Donald Trump (centre) with Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta
at the G7 summit of Heads of State and of Government, on May 27, 2017
in Taormina, Sicily. FILE PHOTO | AFP
Donald Trump may find it impossible to
maintain his inattention to Africa at a meeting on Friday and Saturday
of the world's richest countries.
A proposed Compact
with Africa is one of the top agenda items at the Group of 20 summit in
Germany, which is expected to include an address by President Uhuru
Kenyatta.
Germany, this year's coordinator of the G20,
has fashioned the compact as an opportunity for African nations to
attract more private investment by carrying out governance reforms in
partnership with wealthy nations and multilateral institutions such as
the World Bank.
As the leader of what remains the
world's sole superpower, Mr Trump can potentially help ensure the
success of the Compact with Africa.
But the US president has so far exhibited little interest in Africa.
The
president has given almost no indication of his Africa policy, and key
Africa-focused posts in his administration remain vacant six months
after he took office.
Oil interests
German
Chancellor Angela Merkel, host of the G20 meeting in Hamburg, is
expressing pessimism about Mr Trump's engagement with Africa, both at
the upcoming summit and in the longer term.
“The US
will probably not engage in Africa to the extent that would be
necessary, particularly since they barely have oil interests any more in
Africa and the Arab world,” Mrs Merkel said on Wednesday.
Sub-Saharan
countries' oil exports to the United States have fallen sharply during
the past decade as new technology has enabled the US to boost domestic
production of fossil fuels.
In 2015, the US imported
only 247,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Nigeria, Angola and other
sub-Saharan sources, compared to 1.8 million barrels in 2005.
One
high-ranking figure in the Trump administration has, however, expressed
at least rhetorical support for the view of Africa as a land of
opportunity for outside investors.
“We cannot ignore
such a large, dynamic and vital part of the world,” US Commerce
Secretary Wilbur Ross declared in an address last month to the US-Africa
Business Summit in Washington.
Countries that
implement economic and governance reforms in keeping with the
eligibility requirements of the Agoa trade-preference programme “will
include the continent’s major success stories in the future,” Mr Ross
predicted.
His
remarks suggest that the Trump administration may actually look
favourably upon the German-sponsored compact, which puts emphasis on
lowering risks for private investors in African countries by
strengthening the rule of law and adherence to international financial
norms.
US principles
The
Compact with Africa's tenets also appear congruent with a set of
principles for US policy laid out last year by a scholar considered the
likeliest choice to head the State Department's Africa Bureau.
J
Peter Pham, an Africa specialist at the Atlantic Council think tank,
urged the Trump administration to give priority to facilitating private
investment in African countries seen as worthy of US involvement.
Mr
Pham suggested in a paper titled “A Measured US Strategy for the New
Africa” that more emphasis be placed on US business interests in Africa
and less on US government aid initiatives.
The Trump
administration should engage with those African countries that “prove
themselves to be good bets by their effectiveness and, consequently, the
legitimacy they are accorded by their own people,” Mr Pham wrote.
Conversely, Washington should essentially ignore African states that fail to exercise “effective sovereignty,” he argued.
These
perceived non-reformers could expect the US to care about their
situations only insofar as terrorist activities within their boundaries
pose a threat to US interests.
The G20 summit may
reveal whether the Trump-led United States intends to approach Africa
with the “more realistic expectations” outlined by Mr Pham.
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