Experts assuage investor fears over August elections

National Treasury Economic Secretary Geoffrey Mwau. FILE PHOTO | NMG 

By BRIAN NGUGI

More by this Author

Summary

• Experts downplay mounting concern about the economy from some quarters, backing the Treasury’s projection that the polls are not likely to be marred by violence, hence the low political risk to investors.
• The sentiments are supported by National Treasury economic secretary Geoffrey Mwau who said constitutional and legal reforms had eliminated the risk of political players resorting to violence during and after elections as an avenue for redress.

Business experts say there is relatively low political risk to investors over the August 2017 presidential poll.

The analysts Wednesday downplayed mounting concern about the economy from some quarters, backing the Treasury’s projection that the polls are not likely to be marred by violence, hence the low political risk to investors.

The economy ordinarily takes a dip every five years as businesses hold back investments awaiting the outcome of the elections. 

Garder Rusike, an associate director in charge of sovereign rating and public finance at S&P Global ratings and Daniel Heal, senior partner at risk consultancy Control Risks East Africa Ltd told a global conference in Nairobi the probability of political turbulence remains low.

“We see low political risk during the polls,” said Mr Rusike echoing similar comments by Mr Heal.

The sentiments were supported by National Treasury economic secretary Geoffrey Mwau who said constitutional and legal reforms had eliminated the risk of political players resorting to violence during and after elections as an avenue for redress.

“From a macro-economic stand point we don’t see elections posing a risk to the economy as they are not likely to be violent,” said Mr Mwau.

He cited reforms in the Judiciary, the National Police Service, and enactment of relevant laws to curb incitement to political violence by aggrieved politicians.

READ: Political cover demand low ahead of polls

They were speaking at the 4th roundtable on “making African risks bankable”. The forum was organised by the African Trade Insurance (ATI) in Nairobi.

The conference which brought together global and African experts assessed political and commercial risks in Africa’s development.

Up to 1,300 people died in weeks of riots and post-election violence that rocked Kenya after the disputed 2007 presidential elections.