MOGAE: National Dialogue can’t replace deal, but Juba can use it to mend fences

The Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Committee (JMEC) chairman Mr Festus Mogae in South Sudan. PHOTO | JOSEPH ODUHA 

By FRED OLUOCH

In Summary

Festus Gontebanye Mogae, was born on August 21, 1939 in Serowe in the Central district of Botswana.

• Education: Studied economics at the universities of Oxford and Sussex in the United Kingdom, graduating in 1974. 
• Experience:
  1975 – 1976: Permanent secretary to the president
  1976 to 1980: Executive director, IMF for Anglophone Africa.
  1980 to 1981: Governor of the Bank of Botswana.
  1982 -1989: Permanent secretary to the president.
  1989: Minister of finance and development planning.
  1992 – 1999: Vice president of Botswana.
  October 1999: President of Botswana.
  April 2008: Stepped down as president 18 months before the end of his term.
  2008: Became the second winner of the Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership.

The chairman of South Sudan’s Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission, Festus Mogae, spoke to The EastAfrican's Fred Oluoch on the possible solutions to the stalled peace process.

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Fresh fighting has broken out in South Sudan with the UN warning of a looming genocide. There are now concerns that Igad countries have left the country’s citizens to their own devices and are no longer interested in ensuring that the August 2015 Peace Agreement is implemented. What is JMEC’s take as the authority in charge of implementing the peace deal?

I think there is an element of fatigue. South Sudanese have an attitude that the whole world only cares about them because they are rich in oil. Therefore, I would not be surprised if there is fatigue on the part of Igad. Why should you spend your country’s limited resources to make other people see sense if they cannot see sense on their own?

Is the civil war taking a different shape and what is JMEC’s position on growing fears of a genocide?

The war has resulted in total confusion due to the collapse of the economy. Already some 1.4 million people are in refugee camps, with about half that number in civilian protection centres. But going back, you realise that genocide was happening in South Sudan even before the country’s Independence in 2011.

It, however, differs from that in Rwanda where one group was doing the killing while the other was inactive. In South Sudan, people are massacring each other based on ethnic lines. So it is a form of genocide that has always been there. 

Is it true that JMEC has been intimidated by the government to the extent that it cannot talk about violations of the agreement?

No, we speak about violations quite often. On February 8 at a plenary meeting in Juba, I said clearly that the recent fighting around Malakal and Renk was a blatant violation of the ceasefire. Over the past three months, there have been increasing reports of targeted and revenge killings, sexual violence, torture and destruction of farmland and property being committed by various groups, including men in uniform.

What is JMEC’s position on the establishment of the hybrid court with all these atrocities going on unabated?

The establishment of the hybrid court is the duty of the African Union. But the AU has never been keen, given that in the same summit that reached the decision, they resolved to leave the International Criminal Court. If you remember, this court was suggested by the Obasanjo Commission but the AU did not want to publish it. They only did so after the UN threatened that it would publish it.

We in JMEC can only say what is written in the agreement but it is the AU that has the authority to set up the hybrid court.

Has President Salva Kiir’s move to appoint Taban Deng Gai as vice president and replace ministers belonging to the SPLM-IO affected the architecture of the Peace Agreement and its implementation?

As far as I understand it, it was as a result of a split with the SPLM-IO. To the extent that Dr Riek Machar is out of the country, he still controls the majority of rebel soldiers. But he has lost an able spokesman in the name of Taban. The followers of Dr Machar could be included in all institutions of the agreement, like parliament, without him returning.

After the exit of Dr Machar, do we still have a Transitional Government of National Unity as stated in the agreement?

No, the TGoNU is not the same. But Dr Machar made a mistake. After recuperating in Khartoum, he said that he would pursue war. Soon after, Igad turned against him. He appears to have realised his mistake because he has never repeated that intention to wage war, but everybody is holding him to that.

If he is sensible, he can renounce violence and say that he wants to come back but that he needs to be protected. He can say he spoke about violence out of frustration and if his people are fighting it is because they have been provoked.

Top government officials have been insisting that the implementation has been going smoothly since Dr Machar left Juba, but critics say they are just buying time. What is your take?

Well, they are probably buying time. For instance, the cantonment of soldiers from both sides in specific camps was always dependent on funds from abroad and people who are funding it have their own conditions. They say they cannot disburse the funds until they are satisfied that whatever action they are funding makes sense to them.

How is the proposed National Dialogue going to work within the Implementation Matrix? There are concerns that the government wants to portray it as replacing the agreement.

I can say what it should be, but I cannot say what it will be. I cannot be privy to President Kiir’s motives. It can’t replace the agreement but it should be pursued in the spirit of the agreement. We have been telling President Kiir that he can take advantage of his National Dialogue initiative to reignite reconciliation, but for a country like South Sudan, such dialogue is never easy.

Second, the spirit and the letter of the agreement has never been fulfilled by anybody. I always say that everybody should pursue the peace process because when you pursue peace, you don’t attack anybody and pursue the rule of law.

When the agreement was signed, South Sudanese initially had hopes in you in particular and JMEC in general but this hope seems to be dwindling fast. What are you doing about it?

Yes, the hope is dwindling. But I don’t have an army to push the implementation. What can I do? I can only report to Igad, AU and the UN Security Council.

Sometimes Igad partner states tell President Kiir that he is violating sections of the agreement but sometimes they are divided because of various interests. Everybody knows that Sudan was more inclined to SPLM-IO, Uganda was supporting President Kiir, while Ethiopia and Kenya were struggling to remain neutral.