The
average daily traded turnover at the stock exchange held below the
half-billion shilling level for a second straight month in November as
the market looks likely to record its lowest annual turnover since 2012.
NSE
and Standard Investment Bank (SIB) data shows that the average daily
turnover last month stood at Sh474.4 million, with the month’s total
turnover coming in at Sh10.44 billion.
It is, however,
an improvement on the trading numbers for October, when the NSE’s daily
average turnover fell to a four-year low of Sh392.6 million.
The
total traded turnover for the first 11 months of the year stands at
Sh140.7 billion. The total for 2015 was Sh209.4 billion, Sh215.7 billion
in 2014, Sh155.7 billion in 2013 and Sh86.8 billion in 2012.
This
year, the investment trend has seen capital flowing into the
fixed-income segment as opposed to equities, with investors chasing
higher returns available on government securities where interest rates
are averaging between eight and 13 per cent, at a time the NSE 20 share
index is 20 per cent down year to date.
“With
fixed-income yields likely to be on the uptick in the coming months in
view of the government’s revised uptake of domestic borrowing, the
market is likely to remain subdued,” says research firm Stratlink Africa
in a December 2016 markets update.
In the past two
months, analysts say fund managers have reduced their activity in the
equities market with foreign investors also cutting back in terms of
turnover.
Foreigners have been the dominant traders
in the market this year with an average monthly participation level
above 65 per cent, despite holding just 25.9 per cent of the issued
shares in the stock market.
The reduced activity is
also likely a result of relatively stagnant share prices in recent
weeks, which forces investors to keep hold of their shares since there
is limited room for profit taking or entry on a bargain.
In
November, the NSE 20 share index was up by 0.6 per cent (-0.4 per cent
in October), while the NSE All share index shed 0.3 per cent (up 0.2 per
cent in October), which is marginal compared to the year-to-date
declines of 19.2 and 6.2 per cent respectively.
Central
Bank of Kenya data also shows that credit uptake by Kenyans has gone
down significantly in the second half of 2016, with the 12-month credit
growth falling to 4.6 per cent in October, from 11.1 per cent in May.
The effect of reduced credit growth also is that investors will have lower disposable income to direct to stocks.
A
positive for the market last month was the return of foreign investors
to a net inflow position, bringing in Sh443 million compared to
October’s net outflows of Sh129 million.
Given that
investors have become more risk averse in emerging markets following the
US elections, Kenya’s market might gain from the NSE’s more solid
position compared to fellow African bourses.
“The Kenya
equities market is also considered to be more liquid compared to other
Sub-Saharan countries, thus giving Kenya a competitive advantage,” said
Kingdom Securities senior analyst Mercyline Gatebi.
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