Why traffic jams and overlappers are not going away any time soon

A traffic jam on the Nairobi- Thika highway. PHOTO | FILE 

By CAROL MUSYOKA

In Summary

• Annual importation of motor vehicles has grown from Sh62.8 billion in 2011 to Sh101.7 billion in 2014.

Mutua stops John in Nairobi’s Buru Buru Estate and asks for the quickest way to Westlands.

John asks, “Are you on foot or in a car?”

Mutua says, “In a car.”

John says, “That’s the quickest way.”

In case you missed it, there is an obscenely symbiotic relationship between the growth of credit supply in Kenya and the now ubiquitous traffic jams that are spreading beyond the cities of Nairobi and Mombasa.

I pulled out some data from the Economic Survey 2015 that was put together by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics so as to get a verified position of my thesis. First let me give credit where it’s due.

The 2015 Economic Survey, all 334 pages, is a treasure trove of statistical information on all aspects of the Kenyan economy. It is a useful tool for looking at historical information about education, health, banking, government and many other sectors as well being able to extrapolate trends if you’re so inclined.

The data on vehicle importation was eye-popping to say the least. In the last four years, the annual importation of motor vehicles has grown from Sh62.8 billion in 2011 to Sh101.7 billion in 2014, a 62 per cent growth in value terms.

You could be thinking– it must be the confounded boda bodas that are driving this growth.

Actually it’s not. In 2011, there were 140,215 motorcycle registrations, which was actually the highest in the last four years.

By 2014, there were 111,124 motorcycle registrations, a 20 per cent drop. Conversely, lorries and trucks grew from 5,247 in 2011 to 10,681 in 2014, a growth of 103 per cent.

Now, what are these lorries hauling? Is this growth in any way related to long distance transportation of goods across East Africa or is it related to the construction of the standard gauge railway, where countless Chinese trucks criss-cross Mombasa Road moving building materials?

The growth in truck importations could directly be linked to long distance transportation or phenomenal growth in the building construction industry.

In the same period, saloon car registrations grew from 11,026 in 2011 to 15,902 in 2014. That sounds low doesn’t it? A growth of 44 per cent in four years? Well, here’s the kicker.

Registration of station wagons grew from 31,199 to 53,542 or 71 per cent growth in the same four-year period