The government’s borrowing spree that has in the past few months
raised eyebrows and attracted greater scrutiny of public expenditure,
will continue in 2016, according to the latest financial plans seen by
the Sunday Nation.
The 2015
Budget Review and Outlook Paper, reviewing recent economic developments
and outlining the government’s fiscal plans for the next financial year,
shows that Treasury expects to borrow at least Sh542 billion in the
financial year 2016/17 to plug gaps in the national budget.
“The
fiscal deficit in FY 2016/17 will be financed by net external financing
of Sh239 billion (3.3 per cent of GDP) and net domestic borrowing of
Sh239.8 billion (3.3 per cent of GDP),” the documents tabled in National
Assembly last week show.
National
Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich, however, says the overall
budget deficit is projected to decline as major infrastructural projects
such as the ongoing Standard Gauge Railway are completed.
The
documents show that the government has retained its priorities for the
past two years, including investing in agriculture and food security,
infrastructure, health care, education and entrenching devolution.
BUDGET TARGETS
The
documents project that the 2016/17 budget targets on revenue
collection, including appropriations, will amount to Sh1.6 trillion, up
from the Sh1.3 trillion projected for the current financial year.
The
government confirms in the documents the challenges it has witnessed in
the current financial year regarding revenue shortfalls — currently at
Sh64.2 billion or a 5.5 per cent deviation from the revised target for
the period.
“Tax revenues were
largely below the revised target in all categories. Income tax was below
target by Sh23.8 billion, VAT was below target by 10.4 billion and
import duty and excise duty were below the revised target by Sh2.7
billion and Sh3.7 billion, respectively,” say the documents.
Similarly,
external grants amounted to Sh27.4 billion against a target of Sh66.4
billion, representing an underperformance of Sh39 billion.
The
documents attribute the drop in revenue to lower than expected income
tax and VAT collection and challenges in the full implementation of the
capital gains tax.
HEAVY BORROWING
Also,
the government’s heavy borrowing last year had adverse effects, with
expenditure on foreign and domestic interest payments rising above the
target by Sh4.4 billion and Sh3.4 billion, respectively, according to
the documents.
Foreign interest payments amounted to Sh33.3 billion, compared with Sh15.6 billion in the same period of 2013/14.
“Domestic
interest payment totalled Sh139.6 billion, which was higher than the
Sh119.2 billion paid in the corresponding period of the previous
financial year, mainly due to higher borrowing as a result of
investments in infrastructure spending,” say the documents.
By
the end of June 2015, the government had collected a total cumulative
revenue, including appropriations in aid, amounting to Sh1.2 trillion
against a revised target of Sh1.17 billion.
To
increase surveillance and enhance efficiency in funds use by government
departments and other State agencies, the Treasury will fast-track the
establishment of a Treasury Single Account from which all payments will
be processed, in compliance with the Public Finance Management Act.
The
document forecasts the economy will grow by 5.8 per cent to 6 per cent
in the 2015/16 financial year, and will pick up to 6.5 per cent in
2016/17 financial year.
RISKS
But the Treasury CS admits that many risks to the economy remain.
While
the Treasury targets inflation to decline gradually in 2015 and be at 5
per cent by 2017, it warns of imported inflation — with fluctuations in
exchange rate, owing to a possible strengthening of the US dollar
against the shilling.
The Treasury also notes that uncertainty in the international oil market is likely to affect the economy.
“Internally,
public expenditure pressures — particularly wage related recurrent
expenditures — continue to pose a fiscal risk. In addition, the impact
of insecurity on tourism and the El NiƱo rains in late 2015 could
disrupt economic activities, further affecting exports and agricultural
production,” it says.
To contain the
rising wage bill in the public sector, the Treasury has frozen
recruitment of civil servants, with the exception of those in essential
services such as teachers, lecturers, health workers, police and
security personnel.
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