September and October were difficult months for the government, cash
flows got mismanaged and the government had to go to the domestic
market to borrow funds to meet obligations. PHOTO | FILE
By CAROL MUSYOKA
In Summary
- Contrary to popular belief, it is not all champagne and roses when banks have to consider raising interest rates.
A distraught investor called his financial advisor.
“Is my money really all gone?” He wailed. “No, no,” the advisor answered
calmly. “It’s just with somebody else!”
I need to disabuse some readers of the notion that banks are
charitable institutions. The amount of energy spent chanting dirges
about how “banks are out to fleece us” or the more recent, “banks want
to finish Kenyans with interest rates” is energy better spent
understanding that a bank is a business, just like the neighbourhood
kiosk, providing a service of convenience.
The less than palatable solution to the purveyors
of negative energy is this: put your spare cash under your mattress and
go borrow for your financial needs from the knee-cap breaking Shylock
two streets down the road from your house.
Enough said: if you’re mildly irritated at my
incendiary introduction, let’s keep rocking and rolling as I explain why
you need to get over yourself.
The months of September and October were difficult
ones for the Government. Cash flows got mismanaged as more money was
being paid out than was being received and the government had to come to
the domestic market to borrow funds to meet obligations.
Bank treasurers as well as savvy institutional
investors smelt blood in the water. They had already done a quick back
of the envelope calculation on the use of the proceeds from the now
infamous Eurobond and figured out that the government had come up short
when there were multiple domestic as well as international obligations
to be paid.
These things really don’t require a rocket
scientist, after all, housewives have been calculating and balancing
kitchen budgets for years. Word soon spread that the government needed
money, and banks and institutional investors were happy to step up to
the plate.
But remember that banks place your deposits in two
places: in loans to businesses and individuals or in loans to government
via Treasury bills and bonds. Two things will always happen when the
government suddenly becomes exceedingly thirsty for cash and dips its
beak into the private sector.
First, the arbitrage sharks that are always looking
for an opportunity will strike. If an individual or corporate with a
good credit history at their bank can borrow at 12 per cent as was the
case with some, then they will borrow and take the money to the
government via the T-bill auction that was giving rates above 22 per
cent.
That 10 per cent spread is easy money. So easy that
the bank’s initial reaction will be to raise interest rates to reduce
the arbitrage opportunities that it is providing to some of its clients.
Which then leads to the next question; why should
the bank be the only one allowed to make money from government
borrowing? Well, the fact is, everyone who was flush with cash and
spotted the opportunity jumped into the high interest rate bandwagon.
Large depositors demanded that the banks give them
double digit interest rates or they would withdraw their funds and open
CDS accounts at the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) themselves in order to
buy government paper.
I know an individual who got 19 per cent on his
large deposit at a multinational bank in September this year. Now, if
you recall, I did say that banks fund their loans from customer
deposits. When a large number of deposits start to re-price, the obvious
impact will largely be on the future loan book that will be funded from
the re-priced deposits.
There is also an impact on the existing loan book
because a bank is constantly trying to manage the profitable bridge
between interest received (from loans) and interest paid (on deposits).
The net interest income will obviously be impacted
from the re-priced deposits. And banks are accountable to shareholders
you know, the owners of the business who are demanding a return on their
heavily regulated capital.
No comments :
Post a Comment