Saturday, August 8, 2015

Supply, demand analysis of candidates in Tanzania’s elections




Mr Honest Ngowi
Mr Honest Ngowi 
By Honest Ngowi Pngowi2002@yahoo.com, +255 754 653 740
During elections, it is normal for those vying for various political leadership posts to come forward and market themselves in front of voters. This is the case from the level of parties to individuals.
Individuals vying for various positions from the presidency in the country to Members of Parliament (MPs) and councillors tend to express interest in leadership posts. In this article, a supply and demand side economics framework is used to discuss what we have seen, what we are seeing and what we are not seeing in times of elections in Tanzania.
Supply side economics
Borrowing from and modifying economics literature, the supply side economics of the political leadership race is the side occupied by those, who wish to be our president, MPs and councillors. Generally, this is the side occupied by some leading personalities in various political parties in specific jurisdictions.
Those dwelling in this supply side of the election equation have been coming out indicating that they want to supply the nation, constituencies and wards with their services. It is very healthy that this is happening. For issues-based elections however, it should be the demand-side of the equation that should come out first, seek and demand these services before the supply side comes out.
Demand side economics
As opposed to the supply side of various political positions, the demand side constitutes the electorate. It is the side where those who will eventually walk to the ballot boxes to elect who to occupy the presidential, parliamentary and councillors’ seats belong home to.
In the much needed but missed issues-based election, the demand side is supposed to be occupied by people who identify issues, as opposed to personalities, that should move and shake elections. By identifying, defining and demanding issues to be adressed by the would-be political leaders, the demand side of the equation should be sending signals of the qualifications demanded by voters for the would-be leaders.
Demand before supply
If logic and common sense were to be given chance, the demand side of the political leadeship equation should come out much earlier before the supply side. This is because what is needed is broad-based demand driven and felt-needs instead of the supply driven leadership race.
Borrowing from the consultancy industry language, where the author partly belongs to, the demand side of the equation should raise to the occasion, write ‘terms of reference’ in form of people’s manifestos.
Then, those wanting to supply presidential, parliamentary and councillor services will express interest and proposals to the would-be voters. They would tell voters how they will supply what is demanded by them. More often than not, unfortunately, the supply side comes before the demand one. This is wrong and the demand side by and large has to bear the blame.
Late supply to consumers
In Tanzania’s election cycles, it is normal that the demand side of the equation is supplied too late. Names as well as election manifestos are known about two months before the election day. In serious issues-based elections this is a bad and raw deal to the demand side.
To elect someone, who can address issues at national, constituency and ward levels voters need to know the would-be their leaders well in advance. A serious electoral demand side would not commission service providers to supply political leadership services for a period of five years without a thorough analysis of their capabilities.
In a best practice scenario, the demand side has to do background checks and conduct thorough due dilligence of would-be political service providers before walking to the ballot boxes to elect one. A two-month period supplied by the system is inadequate for the demand side to know well those in the supply side.
This is much the case in a society with huge information supply gaps and large information assymetry. Information about candidates is not normally readily supplied and available in the public domain and space. It has to be mined.
A way forward
Institutionalised or not, we urgently need intelligent, sobre, calm, objective, organised and patriotic national debates on what the political leadership demand side needs from the supply side of the same in Tanzania. The demand side has to adequately develop terms of reference in form of people’s manifestos for those in the supply side that aim at offering political solutions to issues of concern for Tanzania. The electorate in the demand side of the equation should not be waiting to be reactive in this very important political game.
They should develop terms of reference in form of people’s manifestos for the would-be suppliers of political leadership services before the candidates express interests, deliver proposals and even supply the services. This demand-driven game will help those in the supply side to make more informed critical self-assessment as to whether they fit in the shoes we are supposed to make for them. Short of that we will have ourselves to thank for if we are supplied with what we do not demand. Unfortunately, the supply contract is for five years and cannot be breached somewhere along the journey.

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