Kenyans prefer December elections: Ipsos

Voters queue at Isinya Primary school in Kajiado County on January 17, 2013. FILE PHOTO | WILLIAM OERI |  NATION MEDIA GROUP

In Summary

• A Bill to change the next national polls from August is already in Parliament.
• Respondents cite the school calendar even as Cord supporters hope change means IEBC commissioners will have left office.

By WALTER MENYA
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The proposal by Ugenya MP David Ochieng to change the General Election date from August to December appears to be attracting massive support across the country according to the latest Ipsos-Kenya survey.

The Bill to change the voting date, which is currently before the Justice and Legal Affairs Committee of the National Assembly, is set for second reading when legislators return from recess on June 9.

The survey found that there is a statistical unanimity among Kenyans to move the date from August to December with nearly two-thirds of Kenyans (64 per cent) supporting the proposal.

According to the poll, Jubilee and Cord supporters are statistically tied in their support to have the date of the next General Election moved to December.

“Overall, nearly two-thirds of Kenyans support this proposed change, with even slightly higher support among those self-identifying as supporters of Jubilee and CORD (67 per cent and 66 per cent respectively). At the regional level, however, two parts of the country where CORD is most popular are at opposite ends of the support-spectrum (Nyanza at 80 per cent versus Coast at 47 per cent),” Ipsos said.

The constitutional August date means that the school calendar could be disrupted while the December date comes when majority of Kenyans are observing the Christmas holiday season.

“Indeed, the fact that no partisan divide emerges in these figures suggests however much this proposal is being scrutinised by politicians in terms of potential advantages or disadvantages based on who manages the next election, the public so far is judging this primarily in terms of such criteria as personal convenience, impact on the school term-calendar, or other factors,” the pollster said.

For Cord supporters, the change of the election date would also mean that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) would have new commissioners by the election date given that the current commissioners’ term ends in November.

The opposition coalition has been calling for the exit of the IEBC commissioners led by chairman Ahmed Issack Hassan to be replaced before the next elections.

AWARE OF DATE

In the poll, IEBC fairs badly among Cord supporters, attracting only 21 per cent support perhaps because of the challenges to and criticisms of the 2013 elections. Conversely, support for the commission to manage the next elections is at 61 per cent among Jubilee supporters.

In terms of regions, more central Kenya voters (60 per cent), have confidence in the IEBC followed by North Eastern (56 per cent), Rift Valley (53 per cent), Coast (48 per cent), Eastern (39 per cent), Nairobi (28 per cent), western (26 per cent) and Nyanza (22 per cent).

Overall, only about four of ten Kenyans (42 per cent) have confidence in the IEBC to manage the next elections “though here a major partisan divide emerges, with nearly three times as many Jubilee supporters positive on this issue as compared with Cord’s,” Ipsos said.

The poll also found that more than three-quarters (78 per cent) of those interviewed are aware of the election date which, until Mr Ochieng’s Bill sails through remains August, 2017.

Slightly more than a third of Kenyans, or 34 per cent, would like to see former Prime Minister Raila Odinga run for president in the next election.

But the outcome is statistically tied with those who want him to completely retire from politics at 33 per cent in the poll whose margin of error of is +/-2 per cent.

RETIREMENT PAY

The overall support for Mr Odinga to remain politically active and contest the elections in 2017 has gone up from 25 per cent in November last year to the current 34 per cent. But the desire for him to retire has dropped from 42 per cent to the 33 per cent during the same period.

Mr Odinga’s retirement from politics has been tied to his receiving his retirement pay, the legislation for which President Uhuru Kenyatta has refused to assent to until the former Prime Minister and the his Cord co-principal former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka retire from active politics.

The Ipsos poll that sampled 1,964 people across the country using face-to-face interviews at the household level between March 28 and April 7 found that support for Mr Odinga to remain active in politics and even contest the 2017 elections was highest among Cord supporters at 67 per cent.

Only eight per cent of Cord supporters want him to completely retire from politics while 24 per cent are comfortable with him continuing to lead his political party, ODM, but should not contest the next election.

Among Jubilee supporters, 53 per cent of the respondents want Mr Odinga to completely retire from active politics, a trend that corresponds with President Kenyatta and Jubilee MPs proposals.

Only 14 per cent of Jubilee supporters, according to the poll, are comfortable with Mr Odinga remaining active in his party and even contest the presidency in the next election if he wants.

Twenty-nine per cent of Jubilee supporters have no problem with the former Prime Minister remaining active in politics as long as he does not seek the presidency.

“Kenyans remain divided over their preferred option for Raila Odinga’s political future, though since November, 2014, the proportion of those who wants him to contest the next election has increased. About five times as many Cord as Jubilee supporters prefer this option, however,” said Ipsos.

All three Cord principals — Mr Odinga, Mr Musyoka and Senator Moses Wetang’ula — have declared their interest in being the Cord presidential candidates in 2017.