Kenyans might be better off trying to contain terrorism than eliminating it

Security officers patrol the Kenya-Somalia border. Several officers were injured after Al-Shabaab gunmen attacked their vehicles at Yumbis in Fafi Sub-County, Garissa County, on May 25, 2015. FILE PHOTO | NATION MEDIA GROUP. 

In Summary

• The watchers of Uganda’s counter-terrorism approach will notice that there are a lot of guns, strange-looking vehicles, and many other muscular activities.
• In Uganda, the big man, Yoweri Museveni, takes a different view. He believes it is far better to have a frightened tourist than a dead one.
• A vast drone operation near the border with Somalia will spook some Al-Shabaab operatives, but over a year will cost hundreds of millions of shillings, but a handful of new Range Rovers and Land Cruisers costing much less given to religious leaders to “support the spiritual life of the republic”, including a few targeted radical mullahs, could buy you quite some conversion to moderate religion.

By CHARLES ONYANGO-OBBO
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The pressure is back again on the Kenyan government over its handling of terrorism after suspected Al-Shabaab militants on Monday night ambushed a police patrol near Garissa — the scene of last month’s university massacre where at least 140 university students were killed.

Also last week, Shabaab militants briefly took control of a mosque in Garissa and delivered what has been termed a “hardline sermon to captive worshippers” before leaving. Part of the difficulty, one senses, is that the Kenyan Government is being asked to “defeat” or “eliminate” terrorism. In other words, to do a perfect job against Al-Shabaab.

Perhaps we should ask it to do an ordinary job, which means not eliminating terrorism, but merely containing it. Commentary in the Kenyan media often points to Ethiopia, and lately Uganda, as countries that have defeated terrorism. But, have they?

True, unlike Kenya, and despite having its troops longer in Somalia, Uganda has not had another terrorist attack since 2010, but Ethiopia and Uganda are nowhere near eliminating terrorism. They only made it difficult for terrorists to operate.

Containment often requires simple things that are easy to accomplish, while eliminating requires big money and things that most African countries will fail at.

Two examples will do. In January 2012 there were evening grenade attacks in a crowded downtown part of the Rwandan capital, Kigali, that the authorities deemed to be terrorism.

The government did a couple of things, but one of the most effective actions was very simple — they lit up all the dark corners in the city with bright lights. It turned out the Kigali terrorists did not like too much light (in part because it increased the chances that they would be caught), and they faded away.

ALOT OF GUNS

The watchers of Uganda’s counter-terrorism approach will notice that there are a lot of guns, strange-looking vehicles, and many other muscular activities. But the most effective part of it is noise. A lot of noise. Tourism is big business for Kenya, so there is a lot of concern about “frightening away tourists”.

In Uganda, the big man, Yoweri Museveni, takes a different view. He believes it is far better to have a frightened tourist than a dead one.

You do not get in too much trouble there for advisories, and the police chief is the chief issuer of advisories. Sometimes it is like a running commentary.

Pubs, malls, and school heads are all constantly urged to buy metal doors and scan people. “Actionable” intelligence about likely terrorist attacks is issued with the same level of enthusiasm as rumours and bar talk.

Additionally, the Ugandan government is notorious for meddling in the affairs of the Muslim Supreme Council, ensuring that militant sheikhs do not get a look in.

But one of the most behaviour-modifying things Museveni offers is called a “brand-new Toyota Land Cruiser”. The timing might vary; sometimes they are given when the election is near, other times when the country is restless, but he likes to give religious leaders brand-new four-wheel drives. And when it is Land Cruiser-giving season, the stampede by bishops and sheiks to State House is something to behold.

A vast drone operation near the border with Somalia will spook some Al-Shabaab operatives, but over a year will cost hundreds of millions of shillings, but a handful of new Range Rovers and Land Cruisers costing much less given to religious leaders to “support the spiritual life of the republic”, including a few targeted radical mullahs, could buy you quite some conversion to moderate religion.

We overstate somewhat there, but the bigger point is not so much that people should not have a terrorist mindset or hold extremist views. Rather that they should not act it out.

Now, assume there is a micro-finance organisation that you suspect is financing terrorism. Should you shut it down or offer it a chance to manage Sh100 million of government-funded youth enterprise funds? The first reaction, especially in anger, is to shut it down.

However, the burden of being a youth fund manager, and the opportunity of new profits, could bring it out of the cold and turn it into an honest business — even though its owner will still harbour Shabaabist views.

That is not defeating terrorism. It is co-opting and containing it. And no one — at least not too many people — has to die.

The author is editor of Mail & Guardian Africa. Twitter@cobbo3