Research shows a little over half of public will participate in referendum

By Karama Kenyunko

Twaweza

As the deadline to hold a referendum on the proposed Constitution draws near, a poll to collect public views has revealed that at 52 per cent, those in favour have slightly outweighed those who are against participating in the referendum.

 

This is according to the findings released by Twaweza in a research titled “Towards the Referendum: Tanzanians’ views on the proposed draft constitution’’.

 

The findings showed that one out of four (26 per cent), or half of those in favour say they will vote against while more than one in five (22per cent) are undecided.

 

In 2014, when the second draft from the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) was being debated by the Constituent Assembly, a larger group (65per cent) said that they would vote for the CRC draft to pass and few citizens (21 per cent) said they would vote against the proposed draft at the time.

 

 Although the numbers still indicate that the proposed constitution would pass on Mainland Tanzania, the margins have tightened. Citizens’ views also reflect the uncertainty surrounding the whole process.

 

It said just over a month before the deadline, the voter registration process is incomplete. Half of citizens (47 per cent) think that the next general elections will take place under a new constitution, but a significant minority (30 per cent) thinks the elections will take place under the current constitution.

 

The brief is based on data from Sauti za Wananchi, Africa’s first nationally representative high-frequency mobile phone survey.

 

 The findings are based on data collected from 1,399 respondents across Mainland Tanzania (Zanzibar is not covered) in January and February 2015. Previous rounds of Sauti za Wananchi (fifth round: July 2013 and fourteenth round: February / March 2014) are used to track trends over time. It is important to note that polling covered a representative sample of all citizens in Tanzania mainland.

 

The smaller gap between the “yes” and “no” vote that has emerged between March 2014 and February 2015 surveys may reflect the many twists and turns in  the constitutional review process. The substantive changes between the second CRC draft and the proposed draft appears to have created some uncertainty among citizens. Four out of ten citizens (39 per cent) prefer the proposed draft and a similar number (41per cent) prefer the second CRC draft.

 

There are significant differences between the two drafts. When citizens were asked about specific clauses or issues, the results are much clearer.

 

Elvis Mushi, Coordinator of Sauti za Wananchi commented on the findings: “The uncertainty around the conclusion of the constitutional review process, and the dramatic turns in the process so far has led to uncertainty among citizens. Citizenry opinion is split on a number of key issues.”

Aidan Eyakuze, Executive Director of Twaweza, added “There are three clear messages from citizens in these data. First, a Yes vote for the proposed draft of the constitution is not a sure bet.

 

 The margins are small and citizens’ views have, rightly, been changing throughout the constitutional review process. Second, there is a clear call for a constitution emphasis on transparency and accountability. Citizens have been hugely supportive of articles that enhance accountability.

 

 Chronic service delivery challenges and revelations of large-scale corruption have clearly taken their toll and citizens are looking for ways to hold leaders responsible for their actions. Third, citizens remain unconvinced by more assertive and robust collective action.

 

“UKAWA’s call to boycott the referendum has not resonated with them. Most citizens are against it. These messages should challenge the confidence of leaders across the board that their positions represent the views of citizens.” 

 

In the same vein, the newly launched political party, Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT-Wazalendo) has called on the citizenry to vote against the proposed constitution on the  grounds that the document has no public representation.

 

The party stance corresponds with what the coalition of people’s constitution (Ukawa) earlier said that the proposed mother law does not answer challenges and disputes arising in communities.

 

Announcing the party’s resolution yesterday in Dar es Salaam ACT Chairperson Anna Mghwira said the party was against the document as it does not give proper position on government structure, public leaders’ ethics and accountability, human and people’s right, powers vested to the president and the ratio between national pillars.

 

“As soon as we are voted into power, we shall start from where the then Chairperson of the Constitution Review Commission (CRC), Judge Joseph Warioba (rtd) had ended,” she said.

She said the process to the new constitution was entirely hijacked from where Warioba had stopped.

 

In another development, she said that her party, through its Secretary General, Samson Mwigamba, would soon start the process of coming up with members of ethics committee at national and local levels.

 

However, she noted that the party would start by launching public awareness campaign in ten regions just after the Easter festival as a way of introducing the newly elected leadership and in support of the Arusha Declaration.

 

The targeted regions include Ruvuma, Njombe, Iringa, Morogoro, Dodoma, Singida, Tabora, Shinyanga, Mwanza and Mara.