Poll: 52pc will vote Yes in Katiba ballot

 

By Athuman Mtulya

In Summary

The study shows that 52 per cent of respondents are in favour of the Proposed Constitution while 26 per cent are not while a significant 22 per cent are undecided. Support for the new Katiba has dropped from 65 per cent last year to 52 per cent while the opposition grew from 21 per cent to 26 per cent over the same period.

Dar es Salaam. Slightly more than half of Tanzanians on the Mainland would vote for the Proposed Constitution if a referendum was held between January and February this year, a new opinion poll suggests. But as the clock ticks towards the referendum, support for the new Katiba has dropped, according to the Twaweza poll, with a large number still undecided.

The study shows that 52 per cent of respondents are in favour of the Proposed Constitution while 26 per cent are not while a significant 22 per cent are undecided. Support for the new Katiba has dropped from 65 per cent last year to 52 per cent while the opposition grew from 21 per cent to 26 per cent over the same period.

According to the study, which was done from 17 January to 17 February this year and involved 1,399 respondents from Tanzania Mainland alone, 65 per cent disagree with the decision by the opposition coalition, popularly known as Ukawa, to boycott the referendum.

And asked who would influence their decisions on the Katiba vote, 58 per cent said they would make their own choices. A paltry nine per cent feel they would be convinced by the government and Chama Cha Mapinduzi. Ukawa, a group bringing together three main opposition parties, would sway only seven per cent of potential voters.

The respondents’ views also reflect uncertainty surrounding the process. Some 47 per cent think the October General Election will take place under a new constitution and 30 per cent think that the elections will take place under the current constitution. Some 22 per cent are not sure.

Support for the Judge Joseph Warioba-led Constitutional Review Commission’s (CRC) second draft constitution remains high at 41 per cent compared to 39 per cent for the Constituent Assembly’s final draft. Fifteen per cent said they did not know.

Although there is significant endorsement of the new Katiba, respondents are ironically hugely dissatisfied with omissions in the Proposed Constitution by the CA, especially on recalling of MPs (80 per cent), openness, transparency and accountability (78 per cent) and term limits for MPs (70 per cent). But some 60 per cent support retaining the two-government Union structure. Twaweza researchers acknowledged that the situation was different in Zanzibar, with past polls showing that 80 per cent of Zanzibaris supported the three governments structure. “The dramatic turn in the process and uncertainty around the referendum means the opinions of citizens are split on a number of key issues,” said Twaweza’s key researcher, Mr Elvis Mushi.

He also said the results could suggest a whole new dimension because a number of things have since taken place, including the recent call for a ‘NO’ vote for the new Katiba by a cross-section of religious leaders.

Prof Mwesiga Baregu, former CRC commissioner and member of the opposition party Chadema, which is among the four parties forming Ukawa, said he fails to understand those who say Ukawa should have never walked out of the CA and should not boycott the referendum.

He added: “I think they don’t really understand our reasons for taking such actions. Ukawa is against the process which led to the writing of the draft constitution. When we realised that the CA was not going to deliver the desired results, we walked out. Returning now to the referendum means we are legalising the same process we rejected.”

According to him, the numbers are not static, the people are getting more aware and he is certain the answers would be different if the same questions were to be asked now.

But Prof Abul Shariff, Chairman of the Zanzibar Constitutional Council and a former CA member, believes Ukawa would have come up against an emphatic “No” in the referendum which, he maintained, does not reflect the people’s voice.