Market analysis should be detailed without assuming some facts are common knowledge. PHOTO | FILE
By SCOTT BELLOWS
Last week, Business Talk kicked off a multi-week
series covering how to write a business plan by covering the executive
summary section.
Remember that investor and entrepreneurship guru Paul Hudnut
delineates seven components integral to the success of any business
plan that include the executive summary, market analysis, marketing
plan, management team, operations plan and strategies, value creation
and financial projections, and the funding plan.
Following last week’s article, some Business Daily
readers wrote to ask how long a period should a business plan cover.
The consensus ranges from a three-year period to five years.
Investors often laugh at five-year plans as pure
fiction since no one can reasonably predict so far in advance.
Nonetheless, some stakeholders still like to see what you hope and plan
for a whole five year period. So, the middle road that many business
owners now take are detailed analysis and projections for three years,
and then skeleton data with clearly delineated assumptions for the next
two years, thus comprising the entire five year timeframe.
So today, let us investigate market analysis in
detail. Kenyan business plans often lack sufficient market analysis
depth. Entrepreneurs often assume that their readers “already know the
market”. However, as a business owner, you need to identify all aspects
of your market qualitatively and then try to narrow down specifics into
quantitative possibilities.
Many commentators advocate for business plans to
place their SWOT analysis in the market analysis: strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats. Others believe a separate section on the
company should contain SWOT. It really does not matter where you put
the analysis, as long as your business plan contains it.
SWOT is a common analysis tool taught in every
credible institution and available widely by searching online. While
often of negligible value, investors have grown accustomed to frequently
seeing SWOT in every business plan. So, if you fail to include it, you
may put off your readers.
Just remember that the strengths and weaknesses
exist as internal to your firm while opportunities and threats listed
should include only those external to your firm. Also, each weakness or
threat should also contain a mitigant underneath each item. A mitigant
shows you have thought about the problems and present a brief solution
for dealing with them. Many business owners fear to list all the
weaknesses and threats facing their business.
However, investors and other stakeholders typically
did not reach their positions by accident. As smart individuals, they
will likely already identify some of your weaknesses and threats because
of their knowledge of running a business or your industry specifically.
So if you fail to include something, you may seem disingenuous or aloof
and therefore fall out of favour to partner with them.
Some business plan experts also advise business
owners to write their SWOT analysis in light of the also generally used
tool referred to as PESTEL, an acronym for political, economic, social,
technological, environmental, and legal issues. While fairly self
explanatory and easily found by searching for PESTEL in any search
engine, the tool should be used to help you develop your best case,
likely case, and worst case scenarios.
As an example, if a catastrophic collapse occurred
in the value of the Kenyan shilling against other major currencies
during the business plan period as an economic shock, then how would
such a worst case scenario affect your business and what probability
does such an event have of happening.
The most difficult part of the market analysis and
most frequently subpar in Kenya is the business owner taking the time
to, what Prof Hudnut advises, effectively analyse market attractiveness,
size, growth, and competitive environment.
One may make use of Kenya National Bureau of
Statistics data, IMF, World Bank, academic published research, media
house surveys, published industry reports, and NGO reports to assess.
If you operate an entertainment company and desire
to sell a television show concept that may prove popular with urban
upper middle class 30-somethings Kenyans, then you must quantify the
customer segment.
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