British General Election too close to call

British Prime Minister David Cameron leaves 10 Downing Street in London on 18 June, 2014. PHOTO | JUSTIN TALLISB |   AFP

In Summary

• When I first became interested in politics, nearly 50 years ago, Labour and the Conservatives attracted some 90 per cent of the popular vote.
• The number of people joining political parties has dropped sharply as ideological identification with either the left or the right has waned.
• Many working-class voters in western Scotland used to vote for the SNP in Scottish Parliament elections, but would drift back to Labour in UK general elections.

By CHRIS PATTEN
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I used to be considered a pretty good forecaster of British and other countries’ elections. I was, after all, once a party chairman.

I can now confess my method. It was not based on any novel political insight. I did not have a magic algorithm relating economic factors to voting intentions — though I do think that there is some correlation between net disposable income and how people normally vote.

But my own technique, which I still use, has proved more reliable than poring over the political entrails in every constituency.

What I do is not very sophisticated: I watch the bookmakers’ odds. Doing so proved invaluable as recently as the Scottish independence referendum last September. Two days before the count, bookmakers were paying out to gamblers who had bet that Scotland would vote “No” to independence. Guess which way Scotland actually voted.

My method is based largely on the observation that you rarely hear of a poor bookie. So I apply the American writer Damon Runyon’s famous adage: “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.”

CLOSE TO CALL

The problem now is that the British general election in May is too close to call. So the bookmakers have 2:5 odds on no party gaining an outright majority, and 10:11 on either Labour or the Conservatives winning the largest number of seats.

First, as in many other democracies, support for the United Kingdom’s two main political parties is declining. When I first became interested in politics, nearly 50 years ago, Labour and the Conservatives attracted some 90 per cent of the popular vote. In May, their combined share will be about 65 to 70 per cent.

There are several reasons for this. One is the decline of the traditional working class and the growth of a more affluent middle class, underpinned by changes in occupation and housing. Trade-union membership and public-sector employment have fallen. The number of people joining political parties has dropped sharply as ideological identification with either the left or the right has waned.

Second, the anti-immigration, anti-European UK Independence Party (UKIP) takes more votes — perhaps as much as 50 per cent — from the Conservatives than it does from the Labour party. It looks as though UKIP’s support may have peaked, and that some of the air is escaping from the party’s tires. But no one really knows how much damage UKIP will do to the Conservatives’ chances.

FORMER LABOUR SUPPORTERS

Third, on the other side of the fence, the Scottish National Party appears to be attracting a large number of former Labour supporters.

Many working-class voters in western Scotland used to vote for the SNP in Scottish Parliament elections, but would drift back to Labour in UK general elections.

What happens if the outcome matches the bookies’ predictions? There will presumably be months of attempts to build coalitions out of improbable alliances.

I hope it does not come to that, and that when the battle smoke clears, Cameron will be left — as he deserves to be — the only man standing. But before I place that bet, I will consider what the bookies have to say.

Project Syndicate: Chris Patten, the last British Governor of Hong Kong and a former EU commissioner for external affairs, is Chancellor of the University of Oxford.