New apartment targeting Kenya's growing middle class. The debate on the
benefit of the new economic status to the common man is misplaced
because all what the economists told us is that our economy is bigger
than previously thought. PHOTO | FILE
NATION MEDIA GROUP
To understand Kenya’s new status as a middle income country,
imagine a man who has all along underestimated his wealth. He never
educated his children. Then he discovers he is not at all poor.
The
new information does not immediately put his children back to school or
restore health to his malnourished family. Used to the old ways, the
man is unlikely to start using his wealth for the benefit of his family.
At best he goes bragging about it.
The debate on the
benefit of the new economic status to the common man is misplaced
because all what the economists told us is that our economy is bigger
than previously thought. They were not telling us about the distribution
of wealth. That is a function of policy.
Gross
Domestic Product is about the wealth generated in a country from
services and goods in a year, regardless of who controls or owns it. And
there is a difference between economic growth and development. It was
all about growth.
Growth is the quantitative increase
in wealth. It is mostly about dry figures. It is possible to have a high
GDP while the majority of the population remains poor. This is because
GDP is not concerned with how the economy affects individuals. We may
have industries that contribute greatly to the GDP but are killing
people with pollution.
Economic development is, on the
other hand, about the qualitative impact of the economy on the
population. Growth is a necessary but insufficient condition for
economic development. Policies and strategies are needed for the
distribution of accumulated wealth.
Up to the 1970s,
development agencies emphasised wealth creation, believing that the
benefits will trickle down to the poor. By the 1980s, there was rising
concern that preoccupation with wealth creation created countries with
impressive GDPs but with large numbers of their population living in
deplorable conditions.
PROFLIGATE LIVES
Some
Gulf countries, for example, accumulated great wealth from oil. The
sheikhs who controlled the oil led profligate lifestyles, while the
majority of the people could hardly afford a meal.
This
is the danger facing Kenya. To help countries distribute wealth,
economists devised the Human Development Index (HDI). It is commonly
used as a method of measuring the impact of development on people.
HDI
focuses on three dimensions of human welfare – longevity (life
expectancy), knowledge (access to education, literacy rates), standard
of living (GDP per capita: purchasing power parity.
Other
indicators of development are gender rights, freedom of choice,
sustainable development, media freedom etc. All these variously affect
productivity and could lead to economic growth because they facilitate
the creation of more opportunities in the respective sectors, leading to
more money in individual pockets (per capita incomes).
Kenya’s
HDI in 2013 was 0.535 out of 1,000 and was rated number 147 out of 187
countries. This is unlikely to change in 2014. Interestingly, we were
number 88 in 1980!
What happened? Corruption! The
culture of greed took root in the 1980s. The government abandoned
welfare measures and followed blindly the structural adjustment measures
that led to more poverty.
President Kibaki emphasised
on trickle-down development with massive infrastructure spending, but
the cumulative benefit on welfare of the people is doubtful. President
Kenyatta is following the same route.
The inequality
in Kenya is worrying. Very hard questions are required to address the
distributive issues. We have the rudiments of economic equity in the
devolved government and strategies such as youth, women, economic
stimulus, and cash transfers.
Dr Mbataru teaches at Kenyatta University (pmbataru@gmail.com)
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