Opinion and Analysis
A sign warning of the dangers of Ebola outside a government hospital in
Freetown this month: It is inaccurate to say the disease that has hit
West Africa is “spreading like bush fire”. PHOTO | FILE
By MARVIN SISSEY
In Summary
- Any fatalities are a worry but the numbers reported do not warrant the panic in the air.
When I die, I want to die like my grandfather who
died peacefully in his sleep. Not screaming like all the passengers in
his car.
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Many relate to this Will Rogers statement. Rogers, an
American comedian during the early 19th Century, is attributed by
Goodreads.com as the original composer of this one line quote whose
context is appreciated for its satirical rather than historical value.
Obviously, death is not a joke. It doesn’t matter
if it’s a driver losing control and propelling you to a ditch and you
seem certain of your end-game in a matter of seconds.
In fact, the prospect of contracting a disease that
causes you uncontrollable fever, intense weakness, a severe headache,
sore throat, disgusting vomit, horrifying internal and external
haemorrhaging, and irrepressible bowel movements before your certain
demise is stuff we may only wish to see in horror movies.
But the sad part is that this terrifying ordeal of
symptoms is not subject of some sci-fi movie script; in fact, it is
exactly the symptoms of Ebola that WHO says is a high-risk communicable
disease.
It spreads through human-to-human transmission,
with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or
mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily
fluids. Ebola has no known vaccine or cure.
Since its suspected reported outbreak in Guinea in
March, various media sources have been quick to report that the disease
has been “spreading like wildfire” through several West African
countries, including Nigeria, Siera Leone and Liberia.
Obviously, when you look at the numbers infected
and succumbing to Ebola, then, although politically incorrect, it is at
least accurate to argue that the usage of the term “spreading like
wildfire” may have an element of eliciting unwarranted panic.
You may want to revisit history and read about
pandemics like the Black Death plague in the pre-renaissance period
(1346-1353). It is said to have wiped out approximately 75-125 million
people (mostly in Europe).
The plague is said to have reduced the world
population by a quarter from an estimated 450 million down to 350
million in less than a decade.
The difference in historical timelines may mean any
comparisons to modernity is totally like comparing apples to oranges
but at least it gives you an idea of what “spreading like wildfire”
means in infection terms. Don’t get me wrong.
So far, as at mid-August, an estimated 1,145 people
out of a probable 2,127 infected are suspected to have succumbed to the
disease in the four affected countries.
Any fatalities are worth getting worried about but,
sincerely, these numbers do not warrant the amount of panic that is
currently in the air.
Let me attempt to give you the statistical
significance. There are 11.5 million Guineans, 4.2 million Liberians,
six million Sierra-Leoneans and 170 million Nigerians.
This current exposure translates to a statistically
insignificant share of the population meaning that by all means and
purposes, the tragic outbreak is more or less contained.
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