Politics and policy
By Jessica Jaganathan
In Summary
Plans for five countries in East Africa to adopt
cleaner fuel standards in 2015 are likely to help absorb excess
low-sulphur oil products coming out of Middle East and Indian
refineries, where new capacity is being added, industry sources said.
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda are due to
switch to the cleaner fuels from January 2015, according to documents
posted on the websites of the regional intergovernmental organisation
East African Community (EAC) and the United Nations Environment
Programme (Unep).
The fuel switch would come just as refiners in OPEC
countries and India install secondary units and new oil plants to
produce ultra-low sulphur fuels that meet tighter European environmental
standards, worsening a supply glut of the higher grades of transport
and industrial fuels.
The EAC plan to burn low-sulphur diesel and
gasoline would open a new market for these refiners, who now compete
with US and Russia to supply Europe, traders said.
"There is an oversupply of (ultra-low sulphur)
diesel ... and the situation will only get worse in terms of oversupply
once Ruwais and Yanbu's new capacity is online," said a Singapore-based
middle distillates trader.
Abu Dhabi National Oil is expected to double the
capacity of its Ruwais refinery from 415,000 barrels-per-day (bpd), with
an expansion to be completed late this year. Yanbu Aramco Sinopec
Refining Co is likely starting its new 400,000 bpd refinery by the first
quarter of next year.
They would join Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical's new 400,000 bpd Jubail refinery which started operations
last year, and Reliance Industries' export-focused 580,000 bpd Jamnagar
plant in India, in producing ultra-low sulphur refined products.
Currently, these refineries are competing to supply
to Europe as the majority of Asian countries outside of Japan and South
Korea are still using higher sulphur fuels.
New specs for East Africa
The EAC countries have been discussing their switch
to euro IV standards for diesel and euro III standards for gasoline for
the past couple of years, working in conjunction with Unep with the aim
of reducing harmful emissions and improving air quality.
Under the changes in specifications, the five East
African countries have to lower sulphur content in diesel from 500
parts-per-million (ppm) to 50 ppm, according to EAC and Unep documents
and conference presentations.
For gasoline, the EAC countries have to lower
sulphur content from 1,500 ppm to 150 ppm. They also have to drop lead
content and maximum density slightly.
EAC officials did not reply to e-mails seeking
information on whether the implementation of the new standards is on
track and will go forward on schedule.
But oil importers in Kenya and Tanzania have told
suppliers they need to be prepared to supply the low-sulphur fuel from
the start of next year.
Kenya and Tanzania import about 600,000 to 670,000
tonnes of diesel and gasoline every month - about 170,000 bpd - for
their own needs and to export to their landlocked neighbours, according
to traders who regularly participate in monthly tenders issued by
companies that handle the imports.
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