Threat of El Niño could spell disaster for food deficit in East Africa

 

A herdsman helps his sheep to cross a flooded section of a road in Marsabit, Kenya. Photo/MARTIN MUKANGU 

By JEFF OTIENO

In Summary

• The name El Niño comes from Spanish for “the child,” referring to the Christ Child.

• El Niño and La Niña occur on average every three to five years or two to seven years.

• El Niño forecasts are presented in terms of four possibilities: (1) Near normal conditions; (2) a weak El Niño with a slightly wetter than normal growing season; (3) a full-blown El Niño with flooding; and (4) cooler than normal waters offshore, with higher than normal chance of drought.

East Africa is facing a major decline in production of some staple foods due to poor rainfall. The situation is predicted to worsen before the end of the El Niño rains.

 

Weather scientists are warning of the possibility of an El Niño weather phenomenon in the second half of the year, whose intensity and impact will vary in different parts of the world. If it hits East Africa, the scientists say, the region will experience food shortages and the staples likely to be most affected are maize, beans, wheat and rice.

In Kenya, for example, as a result of the poor rains, the acutely food insecure population increased from 0.85 million in August 2013 to 1.3 million in February 2014, according to the Kenya Food Security Steering Group’s (KFSSG) short rains assessment.

“Acutely food insecure households were concentrated in north-eastern pastoral areas of Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Tana River and Wajir counties,” KFSSG said.

Declines in food production have also been experienced in other parts of East Africa mainly in the arid and semi-arid areas, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FewsNet) in its latest update on food security on East Africa. FewsNet said that the poor rains have negatively impacted livestock, led to the replanting of crops and caused reduction in crop yields in East Africa.

“Continued poor rainfall in May is likely to adversely impact crops and pastoral conditions in the region,” says the update.

Maize production is expected to decline by between 15 and 20 per cent in Kenya, following the poor performance of the long rains.

“We are looking at a situation where we may experience a 15 per cent decline in our maize harvests due to poor weather in the Rift Valley,” says Agriculture Principal Secretary Sicily Kariuki.

A total of 38.7 million bags were harvested in 2012 compared with 38.9 million bags last year. According to FewsNet, maize, beans, and cooking banana prices have risen in some parts of the region since February.

“Prices of these commodities are expected to remain high until the next harvest in June/July, the USAid funded network said.

Bean yields have declined in Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, and bimodal rainfall areas of northern Tanzania in 2013/2014, resulting in increased prices.

El Niño expected

“Consequently, both domestic and cross-border markets are already tight. Bean prices are expected to increase faster than is seasonally normal and relatively steeply between April and May across the East African Community countries of Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya,” FewsNet adds.

What is worrying agriculture experts is that, El Niño may signal doom for a population already struggling with the high cost of living. El Niño is the warming of the surface of the Tropic Pacific Ocean, a condition capable of influencing global weather, triggering heavy rains in some regions and drought in others.

“The losses may be heavier, especially for a country like Kenya, which is already feeling the heat locally and internationally due to security concerns,” said agricultural economist George Mwangi.