Tough times ahead for EA tourism as insecurity scares visitors away

Tourists at the Masai Mara, in Kenya. A new report says tourist arrivals in the country could drop. Photo/FILE AFP 

By SCOLA KAMAU Special Correspondent

In Summary

• Report by World Travel and Tourism Council states that if the region tackles rising insecurity and lengthy visa processes, the bloc could more than double the contribution of the tourism sector to the GDP.
• WTTC projects that Uganda’s sector contribution to GDP will grow the most at 6.4 per cent; Tanzania follows at 4.3 per cent; Rwanda is set to grow at 4 per cent; and Kenya and Burundi are set to grow at a 3.1 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively.

East African countries face decreased growth in tourism as costly and cumbersome visa processes and insecurity turn visitors to other emerging destinations in Africa.

A new report by World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) states that if the region tackles rising insecurity and lengthy visa processes, the bloc could more than double the contribution of the tourism sector to the GDP.

This year, Kenya and Burundi are expected to trail behind their EA neighbours in the growth of tourism earnings and contribution to the economy.

The WTTC projects that Uganda’s sector contribution to GDP will grow the most at 6.4 per cent; in 2013 it was Ush5,495 billion ($2.1 billion).

Tanzania follows at 4.3 per cent; in 2013, contribution to GDP was Tsh6,899.5 billion ($4.2 billion), and Rwanda is set to grow at 4 per cent; GDP contribution was Rwf181.5 billion ($266.9 million) in 2013.

Kenya and Burundi are set to grow at a 3.1 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively; last year’s GDP contribution was Ksh462.8 billion ($5.4 billion) in Kenya and BiF182.4 billion ($118,000) in Burundi.

Experts say the insecurity in Kenya remains the biggest risk to the economy. Analysts at Moody’s, the global credit rating firm, cited increased terror threats, domestic and geopolitical risks in their latest report.

READ: Tanzania grabs chance after Kenya terror dent

In the past month, security officers have intercepted a vehicle laden with six bombs at a police station in Mombasa, gunmen have killed six worshippers in a church in the same town, and two grenades were thrown into a food kiosk and a bus stop in Nairobi’s Eastleigh area killing six people.

“These [incidents] could severely affect the country’s economic growth, its capacity to create wealth, and its long term strength and shock-absorption capacity, further dampening the country’s prospect of attaining middle-income status by the year 2030,” says the report.

Jobs in Kenya’s tourism industry are predicted to fall to 588,500 in 2014, from 589,500, and then rise to 737,000 jobs in 2024, due insecurity and high taxation, the report states.

“Kenya is the most expensive tourist destination among its EAC peers now because of the VAT Bill; operators are struggling to operate because either they shoulder the burden or revise the terms of the bookings already made,” said Fred Kaigua, the chief executive officer of Kenya Association of Tour Operators.

Kenya’s Tourism Cabinet Secretary Phyllis Kandie said international tourism numbers declined by seven per cent last year, with only 860,000 tourists visiting the country against the anticipated 925,000 between March and December.

“The insecurity incidents last year, including Westgate, negatively affected tourism performance as tourists perceive Kenya as an unsafe destination. The slump might continue this year given the prevailing insecurity incidents. We are carrying on a global campaign to keep the image positive,” said Ms Kandie.

Last week, the Australian government issued a travel advisory to its nationals following what it termed “terrorism incidents” in Kenya.