This
August 8, 2013 file photo shows barbecue meats, including pulled pork,
being prepared during lunch in Washington, DC. AFP Photo
NEW
YORK- A dark cloud is menacing the cherished US summer season of
outdoor grilling: a deadly pig virus that has been sweeping through
farms and driving up pork prices.
The porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) virus was first officially
detected in the United States in May 2013. Now it is active in 27 of the
nation's 50 states.
The contagious virus is not transmissible to humans and poses no
risk to food safety, assures the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
But it causes diarrhea and vomiting in pigs and is fatal in piglets.
Fearing the virus will produce a shortfall in pork supplies during
barbecue season, some processors have stocked up their warehouses,
sending prices higher.
Prices for pork for delivery in April have soared more than 45
percent on the Chicago Board of Trade since the beginning of the year.
On Friday, the futures contract slipped two cents to close at $1.23 a
pound (0.45 kilogram).
7 million pigs infected
The USDA does not have official data on the number of pigs infected
by the virus. But according to Rich Nelson of the agricultural market
research and trading firm Allendale, as many as seven million pigs were
hit since last May, or about six percent to eight percent of production.
With some 113 million pigs sent to the slaughterhouse in 2012, the
United States is the world's second-leading pork producer behind China.
Stepped-up precautionary measures have been taken in a bid to
contain the spread of the virus, such as making sure trucks are
spotlessly clean or limiting the number of outside visitors to farms.
The virus is expected to become less contagious when temperatures climb.
Some fear the supply of pork products will be drastically reduced
during the summer season of BLT sandwiches -- made with bacon, lettuce
and tomato -- and above all of barbecues, which are fired up full blast
from Memorial Day, the last Monday of May, through Labor Day, the first
Monday of September.
"The peak of PED was four or five weeks ago," which means that the
worst impact probably will be in June or early July, said Nelson,
director of research at Allendale.
"During those months, hogs slaughter will be 10 percent to 15 percent lower."
'Sticker shock'
Even though it is difficult to predict precisely the effect on the
prices of ham, chops and sausages in stores, analysts are saying it will
be a hog-sized jump. Nelson sees prices climbing as much as eight
percent.
"Sticker shock" could be damped by two factors, said Jason Roose,
vice president of US Commodities, a grain and livestock investment firm
in West Des Moines, Iowa, in the heart of the nation's Farm Belt.
For one, pork producers are benefiting from the lower cost of corn
to feed their animals, and are selling fatter pigs that are six pounds
heavier than a year ago, weighing 282 pounds on average.
And the second factor is price-point pressure on consumers, the commodities analyst said.
"If some of the pork prices are getting high enough that it
compares to lobster prices, you buy lobster or you buy less ribs," Roose
said.
Consumers would be unlikely to turn to beef, whose prices have shot
up in recent months due to the drought in several big cattle-raising
states including Texas.
But there are "lots of substitutes" out there, he said, rattling off so-called "white meats" like fish, turkey and chicken.
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