Union officials during a meeting at the Moi University School of
Medicine in Eldoret on July 30, 2013. PHOTO | JARED NYATAYA | FILE
NATION MEDIA GROUP
Shocking news is emerging from the West.
The population is declining at an alarming rate. Experts say it is a
recipe for disaster and recession. It has to do with what happens in
every family home.
Perhaps Johnson & Johnson, kindergartens, primary schools and Coca-Cola will be the primary victims of this phenomenon.
Perhaps too this is why Coca-Cola has launched a fantastic love-life ad.
It is an intelligent and carefully thought market strategy. They are
looking at future generations. If they don't love life they will only
sell Dasani water in the years to come. Governments, banks, shopping
malls and even funeral homes will follow…no people, no markets.
Joel
Kotkin, an investigative writer for Forbes, says that southern Europe’s
economic disaster is both reflected — and is largely caused by — a
demographic decline that, if not soon reversed, all but guarantees the
continent’s continued slide.
Jeff Wise, of Future Tense,
a society, policy and culture think-tank and collaboration between
Arizona State University, the New America Foundation, and Slate
Magazine, warns that research suggests we may actually face a declining
world population in the coming years. This means that unless the trend
is reversed, we could be looking at the literal extinction of humanity
in the long term.
This may sound outrageous in Africa, where we are amazingly productive and fertile, but it comes down to simple math. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
reports that “if the world stabilizes at a total fertility rate of
1.5—where Europe is today—then by 2200 the global population will fall
to half of what it is today. By 2300, it’ll barely scratch 1 billion.”
The
situation is worrying. Singapore has been boosting parenthood for more
than 30 years. The incentives are amazing, even to the tune of $18,000
per child. The birthrate is still at 1.2, which is way below replacement
rate.
The signs of the times are already a reality in
Europe. Ignacio Socias points that for the first time in history
seventeen European countries decreased their population in 2013, without
being at war. Unless the trend is reversed Europe will have only 15
percent of today’s population in 2050...and they will be a bunch of
oldies. Wise stresses that the demographic shift toward more retirees
and fewer workers could throw the rest of the world into the kind of
interminable economic stagnation that Japan is experiencing right now.
This
is how the culture that dominated civilization for more than 2000 years
will disappear. Future generations will speak about Europe as we speak
about Atlantis...just a myth.
This is worsened by the
fact that Europe’s population is falling faster than was previously
anticipated, while Africa’s birthrate is declining more slowly—but the
overall outlook is the same.
If developed countries are
just waking up to the dramatic reality of future extinction, why are
policy makers in Africa so enthused about shrinking Africa’s population?
Racisms? Naivety? Superficiality?
Why should anyone
think of imposing a two-child policy? Who is the State to tell anybody
how many children anyone should have? Unless there is racial bias and
malice behind such policies we can’t understand why it seems so
important to encroach on people’s free capacity to choose. This is one
more of those inconsistencies in today’s world.
If we
project today’s trend into the future the world will be ready to
receive, within a few dozen generations a new Adam and Eve. We hope this
time they will not swallow that apple that has caused so many headaches
to creatures and creator.
The UN Focal Point on the
family, Renata Koczmarska, is trying to get to the root of the problem:
If we don’t care about the family we will crack the State. She is
currently in Kenya participating in a preparatory conference to
celebrate the 20th anniversary of the year of the family.
Certainly,
the United Nations should be concerned. Unless some trends are reversed
there will be no families and no nations to be united…into United
Nations.
How is the State protecting the family
institution which is so beautifully defined by article 45 of the
Constitution? How is the media fostering family values in radio and TV?
What is the extent of the recognition and protection the State should
give?
Stanford professor, Francis Fukuyama, was
speaking yesterday, here in Nairobi, about State, Rule of Law and
Accountability. He said, when the State fails people naturally fall back
to two natural institutions: family and friends…but if there is no
family?
Protecting family unity and development is then a non-negotiable backup plan, especially for young States like Kenya.
Family
is also essential as the school of virtues par excellence. The really
good and bad things of life are learnt and experienced within the
family. If families are functional, bad things will reduce and the good
ones increase.
If we do not protect and respect the
family institution we will be completely finished. And the difference
between being complete and being finished is simple. If you marry the
right person you are complete. If you marry the wrong person you are
finished…
But, if you marry the right person and you are found with the wrong one, then…you are completely finished!
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