Increase in prices is attributed to a looming shortage of the essential
foods due to poor weather, inadequate fertiliser supplies to farmers and
delayed planting. Photo/FILE
By JOINT REPORT The EastAfrican
In Summary
- Economists and agriculturalists have warned that some of the crops whose production is expected to decline are maize, wheat, rice and beans.
- As a result, economists fear the prices of staple foodstuff like maize, beans, wheat products, milk, beef and mutton may increase, triggering a rise in inflation, which has so far remained at the single-digit level in all the five EAC member countries.
- Worsening the situation is the performance of the short rains, which was poor, short-lived and unevenly distributed.
East Africa is expected to record shortages of
some of its essential foods within the first half of the year due to
projected poor weather, inadequate fertiliser supplies to farmers and
delayed planting, further challenging policymakers to improve food
security and control food-driven inflation.
Economists and agriculturalists have warned that
some of the crops whose production is expected to decline are maize,
wheat, rice and beans.
Milk production is also expected to decline due to
lack of pasture, following the onset of the dry season and the spread
of animal diseases in some parts of the region.
As a result, economists fear the prices of staple
foodstuff like maize, beans, wheat products, milk, beef and mutton may
increase, triggering a rise in inflation, which has so far remained at
the single-digit level in all the five EAC member countries.
In 2013, East African countries maintained
single-digit inflation rates for most of the year, thanks to good
harvests, which stabilised prices of food.
In Uganda, a general decline in commodity prices
coupled with low demand for goods and services helped the country
maintain an annual inflation rate of 5.5 per cent in 2013, the lowest in
two years.
Kenya ended the year with an inflation rate of 7.2, a decline from 8.29 reported in September last year.
Tanzania kept its inflation rate at an average of
6.20 per cent for the second half of last year while Rwanda ended the
year with the lowest inflation rate at 4.58 per cent down from 5.1 per
cent recorded in October.
Burundi recorded the highest inflation rate averaging 9.7 per cent, by the end of last year.
In Kenya, prices of essential foodstuff, like
maize, milk and wheat, are expected to increase in the early months as
the effects of last year’s poor rains begin to be felt. The situation,
experts warn, may be aggravated by the dry season, which is normally
associated with water scarcity and lack of pasture.
The situation is similar in Tanzania. Already, the
price of a 50kg maize meal bag has gone up from Tsh36,000 ($22.5) to
Tsh43,000 ($26.8). Hussein Kamote, the director of policy and research
at the Confederation of Tanzania Industries said that: “Maize millers
are likely to increase the price of their products because they use
electricity whose tariff was recently increased. The same will apply to
rice because its polishing also requires electricity.”
However, things are different in Uganda as the
government is worried about an abundance of maize, which could lead to a
decline in prices, with farmers being the biggest losers. The
anticipated bountiful harvest has been occasioned by favourable rains in
the second season of 2013.
Okaasi Opolot, the director of crop resources in
the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Animal Husbandry said the
government fears that maize prices could drastically drop.
In Kenya, poor rains, last year’s General
Election, which coincided with the planting season and shortage of
fertiliser, all led to reduced acreage of the crop.
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