Ipsos Synovate lead researcher Tom Wolf during a news conference to
release results of Kenyans opinion under the leadership of President
Uhuru on July 10, 2013. In June 2013, the World Bank reported that
higher economic growth rate will enable the economy to create jobs for
the burgeoning youth population and continue to reduce poverty. PHOTO |
FILE
In reference to an article penned
by Mr David Ndii, (DN, January 4), it is strange that a renowned
economist can base his arguments on opinion polls. Economists are known
for using statistics and numbers to justify their arguments.
How
can he say that Kenyans are getting poorer, yet economists from the
World Bank argue otherwise? Who should we believe — opinion pollsters or
economists with solid data?
In June last year, the
World Bank reported that higher economic growth rate will enable the
economy to create jobs for the burgeoning youth population and continue
to reduce poverty, which is estimated to have declined from 47 per cent
in 2005 to between 34 and 42 per cent. If that is not good news, what
is?
Even non-economists will be quick to point out that
the massive infrastructure projects the economist disparages have had
positive spill-overs.
Kenyans do not use the time saved
by using the Thika superhighway and other highways to sleep for longer
hours; they use the time saved on productive activities.
The
former don argues that economic growth has not been felt by wananchi,
but is his conclusion based on hearsay or on research? We all know that
apart from adjustment in prices because of VAT, inflation has been
modest.
What amazes me about the don is his
contradictory thinking. He says he advised the government to keep off
aid. Very good. But the next logical source of finance is tax, which
raises the prices of goods.
It is true that in 2007,
growth might not have been inclusive. But today we have devolution and
consultation with the public is entrenched in the Constitution.
Devolution will ensure no one is left behind. We shall never be equal,
but we shall always try.
MULTIPLIER EFFECT
Mr Ndii makes a point of showing how mega-projects have had no returns, but offers no solution for the problems bedevilling Kenya.
Mr Ndii makes a point of showing how mega-projects have had no returns, but offers no solution for the problems bedevilling Kenya.
He
says agriculture would have had a higher multiplier effect and created
more jobs than, say, building Thika superhighway. But how many
youngsters want to be farmers?
His quotations from
KIPPRA are even more comical. He lists the sectors that would create
jobs starting with goat and beef. His argument that pastoralists are
poor is not true.
A pastoralist owning 1,000 head of cattle is considered poorer than a farmer owning a quarter of an acre in Kiambu.
Mr
Ndii is against turning East without giving us an alternative. Yet, all
evidence seems to suggest that we can develop faster by borrowing from
the East than the West. And how about looking inside ourselves as the
source of economic growth?
Mr Ndii knows that economic
development is not achieved overnight; it takes time and the
mega-projects are just a start. If someone has no solution to a problem,
he should keep quiet.
He never reminded us that
Kenyans are also to blame. We wait for the government to do everything
for us. We believe that only our ideas make sense and trash anyone
else’s thinking. No wonder African scholars never quote one another!
He also refuses to accept that the future lies in the private sector where incentives are better aligned to productivity.
The
Jubilee Government was elected because Kenyans saw potential in its
leaders. And with time, they will see the results, though this won’t
happen overnight.
Mr Tinale is a social scientist (rtinale@gmail.com
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