Thursday, January 9, 2014

Economist’s arguments without any basis

Ipsos Synovate lead researcher Tom Wolf during a news conference to release results of Kenyans opinion under the leadership of President Uhuru on July 10, 2013. In June 2013, the World Bank reported that higher economic growth rate will enable the economy to create jobs for the burgeoning youth population and continue to reduce poverty. PHOTO | FILE
Ipsos Synovate lead researcher Tom Wolf during a news conference to release results of Kenyans opinion under the leadership of President Uhuru on July 10, 2013. In June 2013, the World Bank reported that higher economic growth rate will enable the economy to create jobs for the burgeoning youth population and continue to reduce poverty. PHOTO | FILE 
By Robert Tinale
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In reference to an article penned by Mr David Ndii, (DN, January 4), it is strange that a renowned economist can base his arguments on opinion polls. Economists are known for using statistics and numbers to justify their arguments.

How can he say that Kenyans are getting poorer, yet economists from the World Bank argue otherwise? Who should we believe — opinion pollsters or economists with solid data?

In June last year, the World Bank reported that higher economic growth rate will enable the economy to create jobs for the burgeoning youth population and continue to reduce poverty, which is estimated to have declined from 47 per cent in 2005 to between 34 and 42 per cent. If that is not good news, what is?

Even non-economists will be quick to point out that the massive infrastructure projects the economist disparages have had positive spill-overs.

Kenyans do not use the time saved by using the Thika superhighway and other highways to sleep for longer hours; they use the time saved on productive activities.

The former don argues that economic growth has not been felt by wananchi, but is his conclusion based on hearsay or on research? We all know that apart from adjustment in prices because of VAT, inflation has been modest.

What amazes me about the don is his contradictory thinking. He says he advised the government to keep off aid. Very good. But the next logical source of finance is tax, which raises the prices of goods.

It is true that in 2007, growth might not have been inclusive. But today we have devolution and consultation with the public is entrenched in the Constitution. Devolution will ensure no one is left behind. We shall never be equal, but we shall always try.

MULTIPLIER EFFECT
Mr Ndii makes a point of showing how mega-projects have had no returns, but offers no solution for the problems bedevilling Kenya.

He says agriculture would have had a higher multiplier effect and created more jobs than, say, building Thika superhighway. But how many youngsters want to be farmers?

His quotations from KIPPRA are even more comical. He lists the sectors that would create jobs starting with goat and beef. His argument that pastoralists are poor is not true.

A pastoralist owning 1,000 head of cattle is considered poorer than a farmer owning a quarter of an acre in Kiambu.

Mr Ndii is against turning East without giving us an alternative. Yet, all evidence seems to suggest that we can develop faster by borrowing from the East than the West. And how about looking inside ourselves as the source of economic growth?

Mr Ndii knows that economic development is not achieved overnight; it takes time and the mega-projects are just a start. If someone has no solution to a problem, he should keep quiet.
He never reminded us that Kenyans are also to blame. We wait for the government to do everything for us. We believe that only our ideas make sense and trash anyone else’s thinking. No wonder African scholars never quote one another!

He also refuses to accept that the future lies in the private sector where incentives are better aligned to productivity.

The Jubilee Government was elected because Kenyans saw potential in its leaders. And with time, they will see the results, though this won’t happen overnight.
Mr Tinale is a social scientist (rtinale@gmail.com

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