Ceasefire in South Sudan; now the real work begins

A picture taken on January 19, 2014 shows a SPLA soldiers resting in Bor, the state capital of South Sudan's power-key eastern state of Jonglei, housing thousands of Internally Displaced People (IDPs). AFP PHOTO / WAAKHE SIMON WUDU 

 

 

By L. Muthoni Wanyeki

Finally. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s mediation team has brokered a ceasefire between the Government of South Sudan and the Sudanese Peoples’ Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition.

The African and external diplomatic community know the real work lies ahead — addressing the proximate and structural causes of the month-old conflict.

Meanwhile, South Sudanese academics and civil society want negotiations on these proximate and structural causes to go beyond the political protagonists and a new “elite consensus” to also address the long-standing legacy of impunity for human-rights violations experienced by ordinary South Sudanese and ensuring the latter benefit materially from their Independence.

The international media and external scholars doubt both the intentions and capacities of the GoSS and the SPLM/A in Opposition to maintain the ceasefire, pointing to the external economic interests involved. Oil production is down, Chinese and Indian companies have extracted their personnel.

Uganda is unapologetic about its military involvement on the side of the GoSS. Sudan denies its involvement, however, claiming it has only sent 900 or so “technicians” to the oil-producing states.

Will the IGAD mediation team be able to now move to the next phase — shepherding negotiations on political inclusion within the party as well as through the constitutional reform process?

While the targeting of civilians on an ethnic basis by forces on both sides seems to have diminished somewhat, reports continue to trickle out of unacceptable violations.

The forced conscription of civilians, including children. The burning of homes, the looting of properties. The invasion and looting of places of refuge and assistance — including hospitals.

The gang rapes of women, sometimes over several days — including women in hospital already injured in the conflict. The attempts to enter United Nations compounds and the looting of relief supplies. The murders in those compounds because of distrust engendered by the attacks and counter-attacks. It is terrible.

Regardless of the desires of the political protagonists, then, accountability is on the table. If not pushed by the Igad mediation team at this point, then at least pushed by the African Union in its backing of the Peace and Security Council-mandated Commission of Inquiry.

The protagonists may well be talking out of both sides of their mouths, both believing, ultimately, they can win militarily despite the lack of cohesion of their forces.

The GoSS, with Uganda unacceptably at its side, by reclaiming key cities and towns. The opposition by retreating to the countryside for another protracted guerrilla war.

But that is a worst-case scenario — that GoSS must count the long-term costs of. It will become increasingly isolated if it does not — its relations, if not with the immediate region, then with the rest of the world have been damaged by this. And even the immediate region — now host to 80,000 new refugees from South Sudan — cannot bear this interminably.

L. Muthoni Wanyeki is Amnesty International’s new regional director for East Africa. This column is written in her personal capacity