Black swans that businesses should plan for to succeed

 

There are many threats that businesses face. Fotosearch 

By BONIFACE NGAHU

In Summary

• Global climate change will bring big surprises to many entrepreneurs.

Some of the predictions that Market Talk made in 2013 came true. The elections were peaceful, many workers and civil society groups held protests, a number of civil servants quit their positions to vie for political offices created by the new constitution.

The constitution also played a big role in shaping the developments in the year; the Supreme Court made a landmark ruling on the elections, county governments were established, cabinet secretaries and other public officers were vetted.

I also predicted that brave investors would reap big in the stock exchange which was confirmed by the high ranking of Nairobi Securities Exchange among the best in Africa. This rally is expected to continue as 2014 has fewer uncertainties compared to last year.

Future

Since we cannot always predict the future, the projections had one disclaimer— the Black Swans. These are new local or global events that drive market behaviour which cannot be anticipated.

There will always be such unpredictable events with great implications. One such event was Westgate terror attack which changed our perception of how secure Kenya is as a nation and resulted to initiatives such as Nyumba Kumi—a community policing programme based on clustering of all Kenyan households in tens for greater vigilance.

Teen

Last year, the world got into its teen years, this means that we should expect rapid developments. The ‘hormonal’ changes that come with teenagehood will continue shaping Kenya and the global agenda.

The teen stage is matched with a youthful population in many countries like Kenya who will continue making a point, calling for inclusion and creating unrest if they feel ignored or oppressed.

The latent energy in youthful population will need to be harnessed for their impact to be positive. They also present a large market for businesses to target.

Climate

A visit to the Rift Valley indicates significant rising water levels in most of the lakes from Lake Nakuru to Lake Bogoria.

Roads have been submerged, wildebeasts returned to Mara while they were supposed to be going back to Serengeti. This is the reality of global warming.

According to Jeffrey Kluger’s article in The Times, Elnino is on its way. Mr Kluger states that the Pacific which covers 30 per cent of the earth is warming which is likely to cause shifts in weather patterns across the world.

The weather this year will most likely behave like a stubborn teenage girl whose mother can’t keep up with her developments. This will definitely be an aspect to watch as it is likely to affect businesses.