Thursday, December 12, 2013

What living in Nairobi will be like 50 years from now

Passengers alight from a commuter train at Syokimau Railway Station on November 14, 2012. SALATON NJAU 

By Kwame Owino
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In the first half of the next 50 years, the scenarios drawn by the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA-Kenya) and a group of professionals anticipate that inclusiveness and the competence of county or multi-county governments will drive metropolitan areas’ future.

Simply put, Nairobi’s future will be determined by the degree to which it retains its cosmopolitan posture and how its people ensure competent governance.

In essence, this will ensure it doesn’t run out of highly innovative people that generate ideas and produce goods and services to match demand for improved lives. With that assumption, this is what a resident sees as the life of Nairobi dwellers in 2063.

It is clear that because of agglomeration, Nairobi is still the largest among Kenya’s cities by both population, economic activity and aggregated consumption. Overall, Nairobi 2063 has benefited from population growth owing to the fact that some 70 per cent of Kenya’s citizens live in urban areas.

Because of the concentration of political institutions in the main city, Nairobi’s status as the commercial and cultural capital remains unchallenged.

Nairobi’s organic growth has inevitably led to creation of boroughs and administrative sub-division and consolidation. Its uneven size is also due to a highly concentrated national government, whose activities are still run from the city.

Settlement and its population growth are driven by the fact that Kenya’s demographic transition is complete and the working population’s proportion has grown in comparison to dependants and retired people.
New arrivals account for most population growth. Employment in the city is driven entirely by services such as retail and large-scale trade, tourism, transportation and niche professional and manufacturing services.
Large scale-manufacturing is non-existent as national manufacturing bases have relocated towards the coast and the industrial belt. These outlying counties and political units rely on Nairobi as a centre of logistics and business services.

A large number of small and medium-sized firms provide most jobs for Kenyans and are the real foundation of Nairobi’s sustenance.

In 2063, Nairobi has Africa’s fourth largest underground railway system that transports more than 60 per cent of the population per day. This system extends beyond the city’s administrative boundaries and includes outlying counties of Kiambu, Murang’a and Machakos.

Seven-year waiting
Personalised transport known as motor vehicles today, are available at very high cost since owners have to bear the full cost of public infrastructure use.
The application process has a seven-year waiting period because the city government has imposed a quota on the licensing personal transport.

Public spending by the national and city government is directed to services and public goods, including the national zoo that replaced the Nairobi National Park, an aquarium and health promoting activities.
Owing to irrefutable evidence that tobacco ruins health, smoking and trading in it was banned 20 years ago.
Because most infectious diseases have been virtually eradicated by medical advances, life expectancy is uniformly high for all affluent and less affluent at 90 years.

Kenya has now adopted a measure for personal happiness and quality of life indices since longevity is no longer a sensible marker of welfare as functionality in old age is the concern of most residents of Nairobi and the country

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