Passengers alight from a commuter train at Syokimau Railway Station on November 14, 2012. SALATON NJAU
In the first half of the next 50 years,
the scenarios drawn by the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA-Kenya) and
a group of professionals anticipate that inclusiveness and the
competence of county or multi-county governments will drive metropolitan
areas’ future.
Simply put, Nairobi’s future will be
determined by the degree to which it retains its cosmopolitan posture
and how its people ensure competent governance.
In
essence, this will ensure it doesn’t run out of highly innovative people
that generate ideas and produce goods and services to match demand for
improved lives. With that assumption, this is what a resident sees as
the life of Nairobi dwellers in 2063.
It is clear that
because of agglomeration, Nairobi is still the largest among Kenya’s
cities by both population, economic activity and aggregated consumption.
Overall, Nairobi 2063 has benefited from population growth owing to the
fact that some 70 per cent of Kenya’s citizens live in urban areas.
Because
of the concentration of political institutions in the main city,
Nairobi’s status as the commercial and cultural capital remains
unchallenged.
Nairobi’s organic growth has inevitably
led to creation of boroughs and administrative sub-division and
consolidation. Its uneven size is also due to a highly concentrated
national government, whose activities are still run from the city.
Settlement
and its population growth are driven by the fact that Kenya’s
demographic transition is complete and the working population’s
proportion has grown in comparison to dependants and retired people.
New
arrivals account for most population growth. Employment in the city is
driven entirely by services such as retail and large-scale trade,
tourism, transportation and niche professional and manufacturing
services.
Large scale-manufacturing is non-existent as
national manufacturing bases have relocated towards the coast and the
industrial belt. These outlying counties and political units rely on
Nairobi as a centre of logistics and business services.
A
large number of small and medium-sized firms provide most jobs for
Kenyans and are the real foundation of Nairobi’s sustenance.
In
2063, Nairobi has Africa’s fourth largest underground railway system
that transports more than 60 per cent of the population per day. This
system extends beyond the city’s administrative boundaries and includes
outlying counties of Kiambu, Murang’a and Machakos.
Seven-year waiting
Personalised
transport known as motor vehicles today, are available at very high
cost since owners have to bear the full cost of public infrastructure
use.
The application process has a seven-year waiting
period because the city government has imposed a quota on the licensing
personal transport.
Public spending by the national
and city government is directed to services and public goods, including
the national zoo that replaced the Nairobi National Park, an aquarium
and health promoting activities.
Owing to irrefutable evidence that tobacco ruins health, smoking and trading in it was banned 20 years ago.
Because
most infectious diseases have been virtually eradicated by medical
advances, life expectancy is uniformly high for all affluent and less
affluent at 90 years.
Kenya has now adopted a measure
for personal happiness and quality of life indices since longevity is no
longer a sensible marker of welfare as functionality in old age is the
concern of most residents of Nairobi and the country
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