Political dynasties will still dominate in 2063, putting nationhood at risk

President Uhuru Kenyatta with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during the burial service of the late KNUT Secretary General, David Okuta in Ahero, Kisumu County. PPS 

In Summary

• Kenya established a class structure and entrenched such emerging political dynasties
• There is the possibility of Kenya collapsing as a state due to the effort of both internal and external forces that are out to undermine its sense of sovereignty.
• In the first two decades of independence Kenya seemingly thrived on its neo-colonial relationship with Western nations

By Macharia Munene
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Celebrating fifty years of post-colonial existence calls for reflection on what those years meant and what the next fifty are likely to mean.

Several inter-related questions come up for consideration. They include the likely political dispensation, demographic trends, socio-economic outlook, relations with other countries, and the handling of non-state forces.

The last fifty years started on a high note of nationalistic euphoria as Kenya transited from a colonial state into independence in an international system dominated by competing rival powers with conflicting ideologies.

It had emerged from the turbulence of the Mau Mau War, giving it a “revolutionary” reputation.

Many countries, irrespective of ideologies, rushed to Nairobi to establish embassies in a race to beat their rivals.

Jomo Kenyatta’s belief, as he expressed in the 1945 Manchester Pan-African Congress, was to get political power first and the rest would follow. His was political pragmatism of acquiring and keeping power.

He had observed what had happened in the Congo where Western Europe and North America had simply sabotaged independence by assassinating Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba and plunging the country into chaos.

The need to balance the “revolutionary” image with pampering Euro-egos was also propelled by well-organised forces of state disintegration. These included Somali expansionism and Zanzibari Arab territorial claims.

In those fifty years, domestic and global dynamics made initial successes flounder as Kenya became overly dependent on the goodwill of Europe and America. It established a class structure and entrenched such emerging political dynasties as those associated with Kenyatta, Odinga, Nyachae, Mudavadi, Wamalwa, Mwendwa, Nyaga, Nyamweya, and Konchela.

While in the first two decades of independence Kenya seemingly thrived on its neo-colonial relationship with Western nations, the next two were problematic in that it was reduced to a simple client state, doing the bidding of the master states.

The last decade witnessed a shift and deliberate effort to escape the client state strangulation and to assert the right to make independent decisions.

Fifty years after independence Kenyatta’s son, Uhuru, exudes some of his father’s political philosophy; power first and the rest to follow.

But the Kenya of 2063 is likely to be different. There is the possibility of Kenya collapsing as a state due to the effort of both internal and external forces that are out to undermine its sense of sovereignty.

The confusion over devolution, unless it is cleared, will also be a threat to national unity by eroding Kenyan identity. Political dynasties will still be in place, probably dominating new metropolises.