A picture of beads.
Photo/FILE
When Francis Njehia first set foot in
Uganda a few years ago to begin his university education, the amount of
money in his pocket felt unreal.
It was mind-boggling just paying USh10,000 just for a cab ride when back home in Nairobi he would have paid Sh500.
Although
the arithmetic made sense, his mind simply refused to accept this as
normal, and it would be months before he accepted that he would have to
part with what seemed like a fortune every time he wanted a soda.
In
the next 10 years, however, politics and economics notwithstanding,
Njehia might not get the heebie-jeebies every time he orders a soda in
Kampala, as the region is poised to have a regional currency, more than
50 years after the East African Shilling became obsolete.
The
groundwork for this was laid two weeks ago when the leaders of Kenya,
Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi signed a Monetary Union Protocol
that will culminate in the launch of the regional currency.
The
unit has been touted as a logical economic step as the region inches
closer to an integration that is expected to finally yield a political
federation.
“It will eliminate the costs attendant to
juggling different currencies, thereby reducing transaction costs,” said
President Uhuru Kenyatta after the event, held in Uganda.
“Businesses
will find more freedom to trade and invest more widely, and foreign
investors will find additional, irresistible reasons to pitch tent in
our region.
POSSIBLE PITFALLS
Such advantages will no doubt result in increased investment and further transformation of East Africa.”
Some have, however, pointed out that the plan is fraught with Euro-type pitfalls.
But,
although many reasons have been advanced for the problems that have
rocked the region, some experts point out that the Euro wasn’t the
problem per se, but a failure by the Eurozone to effectively harmonise
economic and fiscal rules before launching the single currency.
To
deal with these, the 10-year period is meant to see the countries
harmonise the most critical indicators; inflation, fiscal deficit,
interest rates, foreign currency reserves and debt.
And those 10 years, according to some experts, are sufficient to lay the strongest foundations for a regional currency.
One
of those optimists is Nikhil Hira of Deloitte, who says that, given
that all countries are growing, “it is likely that we will see
considerable convergence over the next 10 years”.
FINANCIAL CONTROLS
Before
the currency is born, however, member countries will have to maintain
inflation at eight per cent, keep fiscal deficit under three per cent of
their GDP and gross public debt under 50 per cent of the GDP, while at
the same time maintaining a reserve cover for 4.5 months of imports.
The
new currency will mean that countries will surrender a lot of financial
controls to regional regulatory bodies, with the head of the East
African Central Bank wielding vast powers over an economy of more than
the current 120 million souls.
On the ground, however, a significant number of border moneychangers are likely to look for alternative means to earn a living.
Since
1966, when the Kenya Shilling was launched, trade in currency has been
thriving, and for border towns like Busia, Malaba and Namanga, this will
be the end of an era of sorts.
In many ways, the new
unit will be a throwback to nearly five decades ago, when Kenya, Uganda
and Tanzania still had the regional shilling and experimented with the
infamous Lake Victoria money.
Whether the unit will adopt the name of its ancestor, the East African Shilling, remains to be seen.
And
while the three countries use their respective shillings, Rwanda and
Burundi use the franc, and it is not automatic that the name would
revert to the earlier shilling.
WHO'S ON YOUR MONEY?
It might also be challenging choosing images for the money that are representative of the region.
The
Lake Victoria Money may have used the background of the lake, which
links the three countries as a compromise, but times have changed, and
it is not clear whether East Africa has a personality or common grain
strong enough to be ingrained in the psyche of all its people.
In
this regard, the currency might be the most tangible evidence of the
integration, which to most has only existed in news bulletins.
COMMON MARKET
COMMON MARKET
What is not in doubt, however, is the expanded business opportunity and ease of doing business this will bring.
The preceding common market and customs union protocols will certainly have made things easier in 10 years.
“I’m
just imagining a situation where every time I cross borders, I don’t
have to change money,” says Margaret Wahito, who crosses the borders
regularly to buy or sell clothes.
“I look forward to
the day when I will be able to use my credit or debit card to pay for my
transactions and accommodation in the other countries, and receive
money through mobile services without having to deal with conversions or
forex bureaus.”
The phasing out of the Kenyan
shilling will undoubtedly ignite some nostalgia despite the turmoil the
local unit has sometimes taken the economy through, particularly the
depreciation phases of the 1990s and, most recently, 2011.
But
in just the same way people’s faces brighten up on seeing the
long-withdrawn Sh10 and Sh20 notes, the shilling will become a piece of
Kenya’s long currency history.
Not to worry though, because there is a 10--year period in which to collect enough memento notes and coins!
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