Friday, November 8, 2013

Why unemployment was at 44 per cent in April

 
By Steve Biko
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 Since independence the creation of productive and sustainable employment opportunities has remained a central policy priority of the Kenya government.

A number of policy interventions have been formulated and variously implemented in that period. Key among these policies is the growth-oriented development strategy augmented by a high wage and Kenyanization policies adopted at independence.

In the 1990s and early 2000s, government employment interventions targeted enhancing the acquisition and promotion of efficient use of labour market information, reliance on market forces to mobilise resources for sustained growth, provision of public infrastructure, industrial policy, enhancement of private sector investment and participation in the economy, promotion of industrial harmony and productivity and liberalization of the labour market.

In 2003, the government of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) formulated a five-year development strategy (Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation, 2003-2007). This strategy was anchored on the principles of democracy and empowerment. The strategy put a case for empowerment of the people through creation of employment and other income earning opportunities.

Despite all these interventions, creation of adequate, productive and sustainable employment continues to be the greatest economic challenge for Kenya. This has been aptly recognised in the country’s long-term development blueprint: Vision 2030, the Medium Term Plan (2008-2012), and Labour, Youth and Human Resource Development Sector Plan (2008-2012).

According to these policy documents, the country’s employment problem is manifested in slow growth of formal sector employment vis-à-vis a burgeoning informal and jua kali sector offering many, increasingly precarious jobs; a 15.7 per cent open unemployment rate; increasing number of the working poor; rapidly changing forms of employment with limited job security; high youth unemployment, 90 per cent of whom lack appropriate vocational and professional training to effectively participate in the labour market.

Economic theory identifies several types of unemployment. The main ones, which are also relevant to Kenya are structural, frictional, seasonal, cyclical, and wage rigidity unemployment.
Structural unemployment is caused by changes in the structure of demand, technology and problems of labour mobility that characterises the Kenyan labour market.

Frictional or search unemployment is the unemployment due to skills mis-match, imperfect information flow within the labour market, difficulties and long time lags experienced in changing or finding alternative jobs and other rigidities within the labour market.

Just like in other countries, the Kenyan labour market is always in a state of flux with people leaving and changing jobs while others are joining. With the information asymmetry that characterises the Kenyan labour market, it generally takes quite some time for job seekers and employers to match.
Seasonal unemployment occurs due to seasonal variations experienced in the various sectors of the economy such as agriculture, fishing, tourism and manufacturing. The variations are attributed to changes in the climatic conditions, and time-variant consumption patterns and demands.


Cyclical unemployment or demand-deficient unemployment is associated with the downswings of the trade cycle. It explains much of the redundancies that have been witnessed in the Kenyan labour market especially with the onset of SAPs, economic liberalization and globalization.


Wage rigidity unemployment is unemployment that results from existence of relatively high real or nominal wages. This may be occasioned by inappropriate wage determination/ compensation mechanisms, including inefficient wage fixing policies and institutions. At the same time, unemployment may also arise due to workers pricing themselves out of jobs because of a high reservation wage.
In Kenya, existence of such unemployment may be examined within the framework of effectiveness of minimum wage regulation, collective bargaining, and administered systems of wage determination to employment creation and poverty reduction. Similarly, the efficiency, competitiveness promotion ability and degree of adherence to the widely used wage compensation parameters may need to be re-examined.

The greatest leap in the growth in informal sector employment was witnessed as from 1991. This period of rapid growth in informal employment in Kenya (1991 onwards) coincided with the period when the Kenyan labour market started suffering formal sector employment losses triggered by liberalization policies, renewed government strategy towards promotion of growth and development of the informal and “Jua Kali” sector (1992), and broadening of the definition and more consistent capturing of informal sector data in the national statistics.

Even though no reliable statistics are available on the dynamics of the jobs, it may as well be true that much of the informal sector jobs may have been accounted for by relocation or switching of workers from formal to informal sectors of the economy due to the negative effects of the Structural


Adjustment Programmes (SAPs), implemented in the 1980s,  liberalization policies, which were deepened in 1990s,  and increased globalization.

It’s clear that since 1991, formal jobs have decreased rapidly, while the informal sector has grown at a tremendous speed without any support from the government.

The biggest question is why are we letting the so-called reformers take us for a ride yet as far as the employment issue is concerned, none of these guys can offer any credible solution?

Even with the promised 30% procurement presidential directive for youth, this is still a mirage that will not solve the unemployment equation as the directive lacks the requisite legal framework to ensure that it works and that ministries can be held accountable for failing to follow it.

A friend of mine told me on twitter that 0.005% of youth applicants will succeed at the 30% procurement issue because the system is designed to frustrate us and that despite the president promising awesome aspects for youth, he has not enforced legislative frameworks to ensure his directive works.

Another friend told me that the president flags off these programs to teach youth a lesson. A lesson of patience. A lesson that riches do not come that easily. The unfortunate bit about all these, is that, the policy formulation lacks the legal backing to make it work and this has been the scenario for years.
Unless the policy formulation changes, we the youth are being given a tall tale and the story teller is the Ministry of Devolution

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