Somalia’s ‘New Deal’: Inclusion, security reforms and the economy

Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (left) with EU Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso in Brussels on September 16, 2013. Photo/AFP 

By Moses Karanja

In Summary

• Europe’s new deal is backed by a pledge of $2.4 billion to help the post-conflict reconstruction of Somalia, eight times as much as the $300 million pledged at the London Conference.

The European Union Conference on Somalia in Brussels has unveiled a new initiative to consolidate a stable and functioning state after decades of violence, strife and state failure in the Horn of Africa country.

Last week’s high-level forum, hyped as “A New Deal for Somalia” and co-chaired by the EU and Somalia, represents yet another intervention by international actors taking advantage of the return of relative peace in much of the country.

The “New Deal” conference follows hot on the heels of a high-powered intervention by Turkey last year, the London Conference on Somalia in May this year, the Yokohama Human Security meeting in May and the re-entry of the United Nations into the country in June.

Europe’s new deal is backed by a pledge of $2.4 billion to help the post-conflict reconstruction of Somalia, eight times as much as the $300 million pledged at the London Conference.

Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has hailed the EU initiative as “a new chapter” in the country’s history. However, the Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabaab dismissed the aid as “empty Belgium waffles,” sweet on the outside but with no real content for Somalia. So, how different is the New Deal and what are its prospects?

Setting the political stage for the New Deal is the election of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as president at the end of transition in Somalia in summer 2012, which has presented an opportunity for a new kind of leadership in the war-torn country.

COMMENTARY: New Deal conference will help give Somalis the future they deserve

The new leader has struggled to extend his reach into government in Mogadishu as well as into the country generally. The EU framework recognises that the Mogadishu government requires support if it is to project its legitimacy over the extensive geography and highly polarised population of about 10 million. It has to create a safe and conducive environment for the return of an extra one million Somali refugees in the Horn of Africa and Yemen.

However, the move by the European Union to go it alone, avoiding a formal partnership with regional bodies like the African Union, ignores the fact that Somalia’s comeback is a product of regional efforts and sacrifices, and Somalia’s neighbours are integral to any successful reconstruction agenda.

Key pillars

The reconstruction of Somalia will build on the three pillars of political inclusion, security sector reforms and economic reorganisation. It is how each is implemented that will determine whether it proves a Belgium waffle or a truly new chapter.

Probably the biggest political headache for President Mohamud is how to unite the dozens of Somali regions and social groups. In 2011–2012, a roadmap providing clear benchmarks to the establishment of permanent democratic institutions was launched. Within this administrative framework, a new
Provisional Constitution was passed in August 2012, which designates Somalia as a federation.

The same month, the Federal Government of Somalia, the first permanent central government in the country since the start of the civil war, was also formed.

Meanwhile, by September 2012, the insurgents had been driven out of strategic zones, culminating in the loss of the economic asset of Kismayu after a Kenya-led assault against the Al Shabaab in the Operation Linda Nchi campaign.

It is these events that ushered in the apparent stability in Somalia. Therefore, the New Deal must incorporate other African actors in fostering an inclusive federal government in Mogadishu. Finalising the constitution is a major test if Somalia is to avoid sliding back into segmented loyalties