Kenya's economy expanded by an annualised rate of 5.2 per cent in the
first quarter of 2013 from 3.9 per cent in the same period last year,
helped by a buoyant agricultural sector
Nation Media Group
By Reuters
A presidential election in March had been expected
to drag on growth in the first quarter, because of fears that Kenya
could see a repeat of the violence that marred the previous vote five
years earlier and put a brake on the economy.
"Given what we know now of the smooth passage of
elections, and the rapid recovery in confidence post-election, the
outlook for full year 2013 growth looks very positive," Razia Khan, head
of Africa research at Standard Chartered Bank, wrote in a note.
The statistics office said the looming
presidential vote had dampened business activity in the first quarter,
but said in its statement that the agricultural sector had performed
well.
"The first quarter of 2013 experienced improved
weather conditions for some key crops compared to the same quarter of
2012," it said.
Mark Bohlund, senior economist at Global Insight,
was more circumspect about prospects, saying the fact that agriculture
based on good weather was the main driver suggested underlying economic
momentum remained relatively weak.
He forecast 2013 growth of 4.6 per cent, below the 5.5 per cent predicted in a Reuters poll earlier in June.
Noting an upwardly revised growth estimate of 5.1
per cent for the fourth quarter of 2012, Ms Khan said the second quarter
could expect a bounce back in the restaurant and hotel business, the
sector that was most affected by concerns about the vote.
"The challenge for Kenya will be to steer a steady
course, maintaining this positive momentum, while avoiding any new
credit or asset market bubbles," she wrote.
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