PHOTO/STEPHEN MUDIARI. President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta (left), with
Minister Charity Ngilu during a church service at St Austins Catholic
Church in Lavington, Nairobi, March 31, 2013.
Posted
Monday, April 1
2013 at
12:23
In Summary
- Tourism seen as vital source of employment
- Kenya needs hydrocarbon, infrastructure investment
- Businesses put post-2007 vote violence behind them
- Corruption, red tape still hinder business
Kenya's tourism industry may be a swift winner
from the election of Uhuru Kenyatta, owner of hotels and a vast business
empire, as east Africa's biggest economy seeks to benefit from a vote
that avoided a re-run of bloodshed of five years ago.
Tourism is a vital sector for the nation of more
than 40 million people and was one of the worst hit after a disputed
presidential poll in December 2007 led to weeks of tribal blood-letting,
scaring away investors and tourists by the planeload.
This time, a row over who won the vote was led by
lawyers instead of armed thugs. A reformed judiciary that reviewed the
case commands more respect than it ever did, a victory for the rule of
law that could also lift business confidence.
As well as seeking more
visitors, Kenya wants oil and gas investment to develop hydrocarbon
discoveries, funds for a major new port planned in Lamu and other
infrastructure, and investors to boost the nation's position as a
regional manufacturing hub.
Aides of Kenyatta, son of Kenya's founding president, talk of looking east if Western nations spurn their president.
But both sides may work hard to avoid that.
Chinese imports may almost match those from Europe but 26 per cent of
Kenyan exports in 2011 headed to the European Union compared to 0.7 per
cent that went to China.
"We have been partners for many years, we will
continue to be partners for many years," said one European diplomat in
Nairobi, adding that it was "not realistic" for Kenya to swiftly switch
its economy towards China.
Chinese influence has grown sharply across Africa,
Western firms may push to ensure their position in Kenya is not eroded.
Big names in the country include Diageo, Vodafone , Tullow and Canada's
Simba Energy.
Positive sentiment
Kenya's economy took a pummelling five years ago
when weeks of post-election violence led to the killing of more than
1,200 people. About 350,000 people were displaced from their homes.
Growth has still not returned to the 7 per cent
level it reached in 2007 before the bloodbath began. The economy grew
4.5 to 5 per cent in 2012, the International Monetary Fund estimated,
forecasting before the election that it could reach at least 5.5 to 6
per cent in 2013. Prospects could now improve further.
But it still puts Kenya behind some African
neighbours, which were equally concerned by the vote because their
economies were hit after 2007 when trade routes through Kenya shutdown.
"We expect to see increased capital inflows and
especially foreign direct investment," Finance Minister Robinson Githae
said soon after Kenyatta was declared winner on March 9.
And, even as his victory was challenged in court
following the calm voting on March 4, Kenya seized on positive sentiment
to announce plans for a debut $1 billion Eurobond.
Kenya's initial plans to issue a $500 million Eurobond were delayed by the post-election violence in early 2008.
Tourism earned Kenya $1.12 billion in 2012 and was
the third biggest foreign exchange earner behind tea exports ($1.31
billion) and remittances from Kenyans abroad ($1.17 billion). But the
industry is particularly valuable because it is a big employer, vital
for a nation with an expanding population.
"If the country is going to develop in a balanced
way, there has to be an emphasis put on the tourism sector," said
Phumelele Mbiyo, head of macroeconomic research at CFC Stanbic Bank.
Kenya drew in 1.23 million tourists in 2012, far
fewer than the 8 million or so a year that visit South Africa, a nation
that offers a similar mix of beach resorts and safaris.
Kenyatta's Jubilee coalition pledged to hike that
to 3 million visitors a year. It could be helped by growing interest in
Kenya as a destination.
"Kenyan investment plans previously put on hold
because of election-related uncertainty are now likely to be realised,"
said Standard Chartered economist Razia Khan.
Foreign investment "may take a while longer to see
a meaningful increase but that should also start to rise in the
near-term," she said.
Old problems that annoy business, such as
corruption and red tape, have not changed with Saturday's ruling that
confirmed US-educated Kenyatta won in a fair vote against Raila Odinga,
who studied in the former communist state of East Germany.
And a Kenyatta presidency comes with other
baggage. He is charged with crimes against humanity at the International
Criminal Court (ICC). That indictment complicates his personal
relations with Western states, although diplomats talk of a "pragmatic"
approach that should avoid harming trade ties.
"There is still the broader uncertainty of the ICC case. Whether the charges stand will be closely watched," Khan said.
"Good to go"
Yet from the small-time shopkeeper who ran down
stocks for fear of renewed looting to five-star hotel executives
fretting about reservations, the nightmare of another spasm of violence
has been averted, with just pockets of unrest marring the calm.
"We have clients who were watching to see the
outcome of the petition and the reaction that would follow," said
Mohammed Hersi of luxury Whitesands hotel, Mombasa's biggest resort.
"Now we are good to go. We definitely will have more bookings."
Two people were killed when dozens of protesters
took to the streets in the western city of Kisumu, an Odinga stronghold.
But in Mombasa, another base of Odinga support, a desire to move on
outweighed disappointment that their man lost.
Some businesses said 51-year-old Kenyatta, whose
family owns the Heritage Group of hotels that range from a beach resort
in Mombasa to an Indian Ocean island hideaway in Lamu, could be a boon
for tourism. His family's empire extends to dairies, a major bank and
education.
"When Kenyatta was chairman of Kenya Tourism Board
(KTB), he was someone we could talk to," said Suresh Sofat, chief
executive of Somak Travel, one of Kenya's biggest tour firms. "He
understood tourism and was fighting hard for us all."
Challenges remain, not least how Kenyatta will
juggle a case in the Hague while running a country. He has insisted he
can do both and says he will cooperate with the court to clear his name,
welcome words for Western states that have a policy of holding only
"essential contacts" with ICC indictees.
"I was at the world tourism trade fair in Berlin and all we did
was to sign new contracts and renew old ones," said Hersi, referring to a
meeting in March. "Things are looking up, and everyone is suddenly very
interested in Kenya."
Seven global firms are among those showing
interest in Kenya, including Best Western, Country Lodge, Accor, Carlson
Rezidor, Dusit, easyHotel and Kempinski.
Lagos-based consultancy W Hospitality Group said they would add 1,500 rooms to Nairobi, with 700 opening in 2013.
"This country holds huge promise," said the European diplomat. "It can grow much faster than it has been growing."