JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, March 30, 2021/ -- By NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber (www.EnergyChamber.org).
“You
may kill me with your hatefulness, but still, like air, I’ll rise”.
Maya Angelou was so right. These profound words do ring true today when
we look at the recent coward attacks by terrorists against defenseless
Mozambicans. There’s so much at stake in Mozambique, where the
separatist militia known as Haul Sunnah Wa-Jamo (ASWJ) has stepped up
its campaign to seize territory in Cabo Delgado, the country’s
northernmost province.
On March 24, more than 100 ASWJ fighters
attacked Palma, a town in Cabo Delgado, from three sides. Mozambique’s
Defense and Security Forces, known locally as SDS, moved in quickly and
mounted a counter-attack the next day, but they were not able to regain
control immediately.
Moreover, they did not arrive in time to
prevent Palma’s residents from violence and death. As of the time I’m
writing this, the number of exact casualties is still unknown, but
credible sources have reported that there are dead bodies on the streets
of the town — and that some of the corpses have been beheaded.
High-Stakes Conflict
Mozambique’s
government has strong incentives to push back against ASWJ, which has
been staging deadly attacks in Cabo Delgado since 2017.
From a
diplomatic and political standpoint, it is keen to preserve the
territorial integrity of the country and quash the threat to the central
government’s authority. (This is a sensitive issue, since many
residents of Cabo Delgado feel marginalized and ignored by the
government, even if they don’t view ASWJ as a viable alternative.)
From
a geopolitical standpoint, it is intent on prevailing against a group
that is serving as the local arm of the Islamic State, also known as
Daesh. It’s not interested in letting the country become a haven for
terrorism. And yes, this is terrorism – not fighting, not unrest, but
terror. Sometimes we in the energy industry have to call it for what it
is, no matter how careful we may want to be.
Mozambican leaders
understand very well that launching a counterinsurgency push in Cabo
Delgado against these extremists will not just defeat the tiny and
desperate bands of armed terrorist. Instead, if experience in the rest
of the world is any guide, it could transform these zeros into heroes.
It will embolden them and strengthen their resolve. And it will enable
them to excel in their favorite role, that of persecuted martyr. We must
win them over with carrots and sticks and transform communities.
Pretty smart thinking. They want to do this right and they want results
and still keep the country together. We should support them.
From
an economic standpoint, it is determined to eliminate obstacles to the
development of the huge natural gas fields that lie off the coast of
Cabo Delgado. These gas reserves have already attracted more than US50
billion worth of investment commitments from consortia led by major
international oil companies (IOCs) such as France’s Total, Italy’s Eni,
and U.S.-based ExxonMobil. Total and its partners have already devoted a
great deal of time, effort, and money to the establishment of an
onshore base and liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant on the Afungi
Peninsula.
This complex, which is just a few kilometers away from
Palma, will support upstream development work at the offshore block
known as Area 1. It isn’t yet complete, though. If it can’t be finished,
Total will have a hard time proceeding with its US20 billion Mozambique
LNG project — and Eni and ExxonMobil will have a hard time following
suit with their own South Coral LNG and Rovuma LNG projects. This is a
real threat, given that Total had to suspend work and evacuated energy
workers from the construction site in January, following a series of
attacks near Palma in December. Indeed, it’s worth noting that the
attack on Palma occurred shortly after reports emerged that Total was
preparing to bring workers back before the end of March.
Terrorism and Human Suffering
But the threat to Mozambique isn’t just about gas. It isn’t just about money or security or power or territorial integrity.
It’s also about people. Human beings.
The
conflict in Cabo Delgado is wrecking people’s lives on a vast scale.
More than 700,000 people have already fled their homes in northern
Mozambique, and the count is still rising. According to the United
Nations’ refugee agency, UNHCR, the number could top 1 million by the
middle of the year if the international community does not take steps to
end the conflict.
Thanks to the support and encouragement from
President Filipe Nyusi, his government and the governor of Cabo Delgado.
I went to Cabo Delgado. The President and Mozambican officials ensured
my delegation had complete and unfettered access to the region. Even
during the attacks, I still had a team in Cabo Delgado. I’ve seen this
suffering firsthand. I paid a visit to a refugee camp in the region. I
talked to people who have been hurt, who have seen their family members
slaughtered by ASWJ fighters. I met children, some of them as young as 8
or 9 years old, who have been assaulted by terrorists.
And these traumatized souls are living in makeshift, flimsy facilities that are basically made of leaves!
I’m
heartbroken and outraged. I’d like to say I’m hopeful that things will
change soon, but the UNHCR’s forecast of an increase in the number of
refugees over the next few months gives me pause. (It’s also sobering to
hear that the UNHCR has only been able to raise 5% of the US254 million
in funding that it sought for its work in Mozambique last November.)
Cabo Delgado Needs More Than Security
I’m
not trying to give the impression that nothing is being done for Cabo
Delgado and its people. That would not be fair or accurate.
With
respect to security, Maputo has pledged to work with Total to establish a
safe zone around the gas complex on the Afungi Peninsula. It will have
to step up its efforts on this front, given that the attack on Palma
occurred inside the perimeter of the designated zone, but it is seeking
help. Also, earlier this month, Mozambique’s government invited U.S.
military advisors and special forces into the country to deliver
counter-terrorism training. It has also accepted an offer from Portugal,
its former colonial ruler, to provide additional training for the
Mozambican armed forces.
But this isn’t going to be enough.
Even
though Mozambique’s government is committed to doing everything it can
to bring real peace and stability to Cabo Delgado, it needs more support
than it is currently getting. It will need ongoing support from the
international community — not just in response to the most recent
attacks, but for the long haul.
If it doesn’t get that, ASWJ will
continue to wreak havoc and force people out of their homes, making
terrorism the biggest cause of poverty in Mozambique. If there isn’t
enough help — and if large-scale projects like Mozambique LNG no longer
are an option to create jobs and grow the economy — the country will
sink further into despair. Cabo Delgado’s people will feel even more
marginalized. The country’s natural environment will continue to suffer
damage, and there will be no one available to help.
Doing More — And Doing Better
So now more than ever, we have to find ways to combat terror in Cabo Delgado.
There
has been talk about negotiations and giving amnesty to ASWJ members who
give up the fight. And as I’ve already mentioned, there are plans to
provide training and advisory services to Mozambique’s armed forces.
But
we have to do more, and we have to do better — not just the
international community, but all of us, as individuals and business
leaders.
We can start by denouncing the evil that we’re seeing in
Mozambique. We must condemn the assaults and the crimes that are being
committed by the terrorists who seek to gain control of Cabo Delgado. We
can’t just remain quiet, as if nothing consequential is happening
there. We must give President Nyusi the necessary support and backing to
fix this.
Right now, more than ever, the country needs our
support and our voices, and our involvement. “Leaving behind nights of
terror and fear, I rise. Into a daybreak that’s wondrously clear, I
rise”. Concluded Maya Angelou. Energy workers, Palma, Cabo Delgado and
Mozambique will rise out of this like the African sun rises everyday.
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