Nasa leader Raila Odinga addresses mourners in Sidindi, Siaya County, on
December 2, 2017 during the burial of Collins Odhiambo, who was said to
have been killed by the police. PHOTO | ONDARI OGEGA | NATION MEDIA
GROUP
Top leaders of the National Super Alliance are split over
whether or not Raila Odinga should be sworn-in as the “people’s
president” on December 12.
The division pits mostly
younger politicians against their seasoned counterparts who believe that
doing so would be a catastrophic for the former prime minister.
It
is similar fears that put off a supposed oath-taking last Tuesday to
coincide with President Uhuru Kenyatta’s inauguration at Kasarani with
only a memorial service at Jacaranda grounds — that was also stopped by
the police — planned.
However, this led to a backlash
from supporters who wanted Mr Odinga to hold a parallel swearing-in. An
invitation to the December 12 event is already circulating even though
no venue and other specific details are provided.
As this happens, the Nation
has learnt that even though there could be some sort of declaration of
Mr Odinga as the “people’s president” there is caution on the nature of
“swearing-in” to be carried out with some seasoned Nasa politicians, who
spoke in confidence, convinced it would be a misstep.
SQUANDER GOOD WILL
“He is a reform hero admired far and wide. We will not allow him
to squander such goodwill. It is true our victory was stolen but this
is not the way we want to go,” a senior ally of Mr Odinga’s, who spoke
in confidence, told the Nation.
He said Nasa’s
push for electoral reforms through the People’s Assembly, economic
boycott and protests were strong enough without the distraction of an
“empty” swearing-in.
On Saturday, Amani National
Congress leader and Nasa co-principal Musalia Mudavadi was cagey about
the plans even as reports suggested that he is among those who are not
enthusiastic about the whole idea. He is said to be worried about the
legal implications of the move and its effect on stoking emotions and
damaging Mr Odinga’s standing.
“Let’s talk on Monday when we have a clear picture,” he told the Nation.
DECLARATION
Minority Whip in the National Assembly Junet Mohamed, a key ally of Mr Odinga, was also cautious but said the event will go on.
“We are on course with the swearing-in but proper communication will be issued in due course,” he said.
Mr
Odinga’s own declaration on Tuesday at Jacaranda Grounds in Nairobi
that he would be sworn-in on Jamhuri Day came as a surprise to many,
including some of his co-principals who are said not to have been in the
loop.
It would later turn out that
Mr Odinga made the declaration in the heat of the moment, largely driven
by pressure from the ecstatic supporters who have been demanding that
he, in defiance of President Kenyatta’s victory, should swear himself in
and lead them to State House.
“The
statement was made out of public pressure,” said a top member of the
coalition who did not want to appear as openly contradicting their
candidate in the August 8 election.
Since the announcement, there have been a series of consultative meetings by the Nasa leadership.
CRACKS EMERGED
On
Thursday, such a meeting was held at Mr Mudavadi’s home on Riverside
Drive, Nairobi, to draw a roadmap for the opposition outfit even as
cracks emerged among affiliate parties on the parliamentary leadership.
ANC and Wiper Party have cried foul over the list of Nasa nominees to
various House roles.
At a
parliamentary group meeting last Wednesday, Wiper party whose leader
Kalonzo Musyoka has been away attending to his ailing wife in Germany,
avoided the swearing-in subject with some members saying that they are
not keen on it.
The
party’s organising secretary Robert Mbui while admitting that they were
not involved in the preparations for the swearing-in said they were
waiting for clear information on the subject from Mr Musyoka. He,
however, insisted that Mr Odinga’s announcement is supported by all
Nasa’s affiliate parties
PLANNING STAGE
“I
understand why not every single member may be fully in the picture
because things are still at the planning stage. There is still time to
concretise all this before December 12,” he told the Sunday Nation yesterday.
None
of the coalition members was willing to outright say that the planned
event would be shelved on the understanding that only Mr Odinga would
himself do so. There is also fear of backlash for such leaders who would
be seen as going against the supporters who are already tuned to
witness the event.
Analysts say the
onus is on the coalition to psychologically begin to prepare their
supporters for an announcement calling off the swearing-in ceremony by
explaining that such an exercise will amount to nothing as President
Kenyatta has already taken office.
Within
Nasa, talk is rife that their opponents have over time exploited the
fact that Mr Odinga can always be convinced to back down when the
situation becomes dire, giving the example of the negotiations during
the 2007/2008 post-election violence where his side was said to have got
the short end of the stick compared to President Mwai Kibaki.
SUPPORTERS KILLED
“He
may want to achieve this but he is not as ruthless as he should. After a
repressive crackdown last week where our supporters were killed by the
state, he went to city mortuary and on seeing the bodies, he said we
needed to go slow,” one of his allies said.
Mr
Odinga’s main challenge is how to pacify his charged supporters who are
ready to go to any lengths to have him sworn into office on Jamhuri Day
as shown by the hundreds of tweets which greeted his statement last
weekend that he would not agree to take the oath.
The outrage from his supporters was captured in a tweet posted by his former critic turned ally, Miguna Miguna.
“This
is @RailaOdinga’s BIG MISTAKE. In 2011, Allasane Quattara BRAVELY
staked out the presidency of Côte d’Ivoire. Gambian president, Adama
Barrow did the same in January, 2017. No one begs for power!”
OATH
With
indications that Mr Musyoka will not be in the country anytime soon, it
remains to be seen how Mr Odinga would take any oath without a deputy
as the law requires.
The assumption
of office Act stipulates that “the oath or affirmation under subsection
(1) shall be administered to the President-elect by the Chief Registrar
before the Chief Justice or in the absence of the Chief Justice, the
Deputy Chief Justice not earlier than 10am and not later than 2pm. (3)
Upon taking or subscribing to the oath or affirmation under subsection
(1), the President shall sign a certificate of inauguration in the
presence of the Chief Justice or, in the absence of the Chief Justice,
the Deputy Chief Justice.”
It remains
to be seen which official from the Judiciary would be audacious enough
to preside over such an event—or if Nasa will create its own procedures.
The main argument remains that sovereignty is in the people.
FOUL PLAY
In
May 2016, Uganda opposition leader Kizza Besigye claiming foul play in
the presidential elections won by Mr Yoweri Museveni released a video of
himself taking an oath of office.
What
followed was ruthless State crackdown that saw him put on house arrest.
The act did not help him capture state power with some observers even
arguing that he diminished his standing.
Government
officials are said to be closely monitoring Mr Odinga’s moves with some
suggesting that if he is sworn-in, they may have no choice but to
charge him with treason as stipulated in Chapter Seven of the Penal
Code. The offence attracts death sentence if one is convicted.
This would be a slippery path even for the government given the massive following Mr Odinga enjoys.
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