A resident votes at Hola Primary School polling centre in Galole, Tana
River County, on April 22, 2017 during ODM primaries. A survey has
indicated that Kenyans do not want a repeat of post-election violence.
PHOTO | GALGALO BOCHA | NATION MEDIA GROUP
Analysts taking part in a think-tank panel in Washington on
Wednesday expressed uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's
potential response if next month's elections turn violent.
Mark Bellamy, a former US ambassador to Kenya, cited a “dilemma” facing the US and other donor nations.
They
want to help prevent a repeat of the 2007-2008 election violence, Mr
Bellamy said. But, he added, it is not clear if they are “willing to do
that at the expense of sanctifying what could be a seriously fraudulent
election.”
Kenyan politicians must work to squelch any
resort to violence among their supporters following the election, Mr
Bellamy said. The intensive diplomatic intervention that helped halt the
bloodletting 10 years ago is unlikely to occur this time, he warned.
“There
is no cavalry riding to the rescue — no Kofi Annan,” Mr Bellamy said in
reference to the 2008 mediation effort led by the former United Nations
secretary general.
If violence does erupt next month,
the Trump administration appears unprepared to respond in as concerted a
manner as the Bush administration did a decade ago.
Condoleezza
Rice, secretary of state at that time, flew to Nairobi to urge Kenyan
leaders to stop the violence. Jendayi Frazer, then the assistant
secretary of state for Africa, also travelled to Kenya and denounced
killings that amounted what she termed “ethnic cleansing.”
No attention
In
contrast, top Africa posts in the State Department and White House
remain vacant nearly six months after Mr Trump's inauguration. There is
also no indication that the president himself is paying attention to
Kenya.
Lauren Ploch Blanchard, a researcher for the US
Congress, also suggested at Wednesday's panel that the international
community is unlikely to act as effectively in 2017 as it did in 2008.
“There isn't an obvious cast of characters,” she said.
But
Ms Blanchard noted that US Ambassador Robert Godec “is working
tirelessly” to ensure international support for a credible and peaceful
election on August 8.
The US
Agency for International Development is also financing
political-violence mediation efforts in Kenya, as well as assisting the
work of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, she added.
As a possible indicator of the Trump team's intentions regarding Kenya, Ms Blanchard noted a US threat on Tuesday
of sanctions against those in the Democratic Republic of Congo “who
stand in the way” of presidential elections due to take place this year.
Godfrey
Musila, a researcher at the Pentagon-affiliated Africa Centre for
Strategic Studies, predicted at Wednesday's think-tank session that the
National Super Alliance will win a narrow victory next month.
The outcome will hinge on the degree of support Nasa wins in the southern Rift Valley, Mr Musila said.
Media coverage of the run-up to the elections has been inadequate, added Kenya television talk-show host James Smart.
He
cited “an environment of fear” in the country's newsrooms. Media houses
feel threatened by the government's ability to reduce their revenues by
withholding advertising, Mr Smart said.
Billed as a
preview of next month's elections, the Wednesday panel discussion took
place at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a prominent
international-affairs research institute based in Washington.
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